This list has been updated. Some guys I moved up, some guys I moved down, and some guys I added. If you think a guy is too high or too low, or there is somebody I missed altogether, hit up the comments section and share your thoughts (just use appropriate language).
Sub-15:30
1.
Jake Brophy, Central Bucks East
He’s had a great season with some big races
throughout. He just did 15:08, which is crazy, while beating Comber. I think he
wins again here and may be the second guy to sub-15 at Lehigh this season.
2.
Casey Comber, Hatboro Horsham
Killed the SOL Continental race for
a 15:12, and his times have been dropping well through the season. He’ll be
chasing Brophy again and I think that’ll earn him the runner up spot.
3.
Andrew Marston, Conestoga
Just relaxed for the win at the Central
League Championships, but had a very impressive race for the win at McQuaid a
few weeks ago. I think he’ll have another big race here and will be in
contention for the individual title.
4.
Paul Power, Spring Ford
He’s had a great season, highlighted by the
meet record at Foundation. I’ve gotten the impression he may be more of a
strength runner though, in which case the grass track of Lehigh will be better
suited to his competitors, but he has as good a shot at the win as any.
Sub-16:00
5.
Sam Webb, Pennsbury
Wasn’t as dominant at McQuaid as one might
have hoped, but put up a good 15:49 for the win at the SOL National race and I
think he’ll be geared up and ready for this race which should suit his talents
pretty well. You could convince me he’ll go under 15:30, but last year he also
ran 15:49 at the SOL National race and then did 15:32 at Districts, so I think
saying he’ll be low 15:30’s again is a safe bet.
6.
Jonathan Perlman, Lower Merion
7.
Henry Sappey, Downingtown West
8.
Alex Knapp, WC Henderson
9.
Eric Diestelow, WC East
10.
Brian Arita, Council Rock North
11.
Andrew Hanna, Council Rock South
12.
Rock Fortna, Central Bucks West
13.
Alek Sauer, Pennsbury
14.
Killian Nelson, Conestoga
15.
Jack Carmody, WC Rustin
16.
Connor McMenamin, Souderton
17.
PJ Murray, Conestoga
18.
Liam Conway, Owen J. Roberts
19.
Will Swart, WC Henderson
Sub-16:15
20.
Joe Maguire, Council Rock South
21.
Connor Sands, Central Bucks East
22.
Ryan Barton, Downingtown West
23.
Ian Davies, Central Bucks West
24.
Gordy Barchet, WC Henderson
25.
Tyji Mays, Bensalem
26.
Sean Griswold, Council Rock North
27.
Liam Galligan, Springfield
28.
Jonah Gillespie-Sickman, Harriton
29.
Spencer Smucker, WC Henderson
Sub-16:30 (After #30 it’s the list of Guys to Watch)
30.
Ryan Tung, North Penn
Sam Ebby, Harriton
Justin Miller, Springfield
Rahi Shah, Bensalem
Declan McDonald, Central Bucks
West
Ari Bortman, Pennsbury
Dylan Eddinger, Boyertown
Connor Holm, Radnor
Spencer Smucker, WC Henderson
Eli Segal, William Tennett
Lukas Marcelis, Wissahickon
Jake Good, Abington
Nick Cruickshank, Conestoga
Charlie Barton, Downingtown West
Keelan O’Reilly, Downingtown East
Eric Chapman, Neshaminy
On the team side:
1.
Conestoga:
They came up big at Districts and States
last year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see more of the same. Plus they look
better going into the meet than last year too. With Marston out front, Nelson
and Murray looking for medals and Cruickshank likely under 16:30, this is a
very good team and the team to beat.
2.
Council Rock North:
Council Rock North is always a name to
watch, and this year is no exception. Brian Arita should get a medal and
Griswold should be in the low 16’s, but the real strength of this team in my
opinion will be in their 3,4,5 who just went between 16:38 and 16:39 at the SOL
National race. They’ll be able to push each other and the team to the State meet.
3.
Central Bucks West:
I’m looking at their list of guys and boy
are they deep. They could have all seven varsity runners under 16:30, and that
kind of inter-team competition usually means some of them will step up big and
surprise. Rock Fortna isn’t a top 10 frontrunner kind of guy, but with him
taking a medal and the rest of the team packing it in behind him, CB West will
be dangerous.
4.
Downingtown West:
Henry Sappey should be a low stick
for them and Ryan Barton will be fighting for a medal. Their 3,4,5 guys
(Charlie Barton, Jake O’Neill and Shaun Bullock) will really determine where
they finish though, and they haven’t been burning up these courses this year.
Nevertheless DWest has confidence heading into this meet after a big win over
Henderson, they should be peaking for this race and, ignoring the worst case
scenario, they will make it to Hershey.
5.
Pennsbury:
Pennsbury’s got a good 1-2 punch with Sam
Webb and Alek Sauer who should both grab medals. Behind them their 3,4,5 guys
look solid and should all be in the mid-16’s. Overall that’s a solid look and I
think they will do well for themselves with a top 5 team finish.
6.
Henderson:
The last time a Henderson team didn’t go to
States, I was in sixth grade, my mile PR was 7:28 and I had just started
running two days a week for about 5 miles a week (that was 2007 if you’re
wondering). So it’s been a while. Will this be the year Henderson doesn’t make
it? It’ll be close. Alex Knapp in the top 10 and Swart, Barchet and Smucker in
the mid-16’s will be a good start, but it comes down to #5. And whether #5 is Berkman,
McSwain, Deshmukh or somebody else, they will need a good day for Henderson to
make it.
7.
Central Bucks East
I don’t think this team is being
talked about enough honestly. Sure they aren’t the best team in the district
and will need a good day to make top 5, but they are in contention. Jake Brophy
at worst top 5 and Connor Sands in the top 25 is a decent 1-2, and if they get
a good day out of their 4 and 5 guys they will have their top 5 under 16:45. 5
guys under 16:45 with two low sticks, that’s the quintessential look of a team
that takes 4th or 5th in District One.-Cummings
Hey guys, just some added things from ForrestCRN. I'll have more to come as I get more time tonight
1.
Brophy – 14:56
2.
Comber – 14:59
3. Marston – 15:09
4.
Power –15:11
5.
Webb – 15:17
6.
Knapp – 15:32
7.
Arita –15:35
8.
Sappey – 15:36
9.
Perlman –15:36 (injured?)
10.
Diestelow –15:38
11.
Fortna – 15:45
12.
Nelson – 15:47
13.
Sauer – 15:48
14.
Hanna – 15:48
15.
McMenamin –15:50
16.
Eddinger – 15:51
17.
Conway – 15:53
18.
Barton – 15:54
19.
Sands – 15:55
20.
Barchet – 15:55
21.
Tung – 15:56
22.
Swart – 15:58
23.
Griswold – 15:59
Back in 2012 there were 23 runners under 16 minutes with the
last qualifier at in 41st place at 16:19. I think this will be very
similar to our current season. Frankly I think I was quite generous with those
times and I wouldn’t be shocked if there were ~15 runners under 16. That year
freshman stud Jake Brophy ran 15:53, and I swear that I had Conway at 15:53
before I noticed that. That year Council Rock placed second and I think they’ll
do so again this meet.
You're putting a lot a pressure on R. Barton. #4 from WCH, the freshman finished no more than 3 sec. behind him at all three meets, Barchet finished in front of him on 2 of 3 head to heads, and Swart finished in front of him all three meets. He's a good runner but I think his placement is too high based on runners who you placed much lower.
ReplyDeleteBarton runs for DWest.
DeleteYeah, that was the posters point. He said that henderson's #4(smucker) has been less than 3 seconds back from him in their three races together.
Delete* = sub 15
ReplyDeleteIndividual
Marston*
Brophy*
Power*
Comber
Webb
Knapp
Sappey
Diestelow
Arita
Sauer
Team
Stoga
DTW
CRN
WCH
CBW
RTJ
Perlman isn't on the list because he didn't run at central league championships, I assume something is wrong.
Delete-RTJ
Knapp over Sappey... hmmm I don't know whether to agree with you or call you crazy
DeleteNo way Sauer is that high
DeleteSauer ran faster at leagues this season than he did last season and last year he ripped a 15:56 at Districts. It's tough to discount a 4:21/1:54 (1:52.9 split) runner to note run sub 16, especially since he's already done it and has posted faster times this season compared to last.
DeleteExactly what Forrest said. Also, I gave Knapp the benefit of Henderson perfect peaking, running 15:30's last year, and he usually steps it up during the post season.
DeleteSauer was 11 seconds behind Hanna at leagues and you left him out
DeleteAlex Knapp is a money runner. He really shows up and turns in his best performances at the big meets. It doesn't surprise me that some would rank him over Henry Sappey at Districts. They have a great rivalry going and there will be a lot on the line from a team perspective. It will really be fun to watch this develop. I give the edge to Alex if the course is soft and slowed down on Friday morning from the mid-week rain.
DeleteSappey will wipe the floor with anyone from WCH
DeleteHanna dropped a PR to get that. I believe Sauer will show up and drop a 15:40 low. Knapp has a talent of running hard when it matters and he is a 15:38 guy that runs at Henderson... enough said?
DeleteNot going to lie, I think I am expecting too much from Arita, but I'm just going to ride this one out.
-RTJ
Looks like sappey's floor didn't get very cleaned very well.. His mop wasn't cooperating I guess.
DeleteI'm pretty sure Eli Segal graduated last year
ReplyDeleteI think you're probably right. I'm not sure where I pulled his name from, but I remember not being able to find much on him and meaning to take him out before I published, that was my mistake. I just went back and updated to take his name off.
DeleteThanks,
Cummings
You do a great job, Chris! I think it's difficult to compare some runners because their teams don't run a lot of Invitationals and dual meet results aren't posted. Therefore, you're left to look at relay results and 2 mile results which don't always equate with whose stronger at a full 5k.
DeleteSwart beat Carmody by 7 seconds and Barton by 10 at Chesmonts but you've got them both beating him by 30 seconds at Districts. That's a 40 second swing. Smucker and Barchet were right behind Carmody/Barton but you've got them 30 seconds behind at Districts which is like a 20-25 second swing. Seems a little anti-WCH.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Delete^this
Delete^^I hate Henderson ( I have issues)but I gotta agree. Chris, your analysis is way off here.
DeleteTwo things I'd like to say:
Delete1. Sorry to have to delete whomever's comment it was impersonating me, but the language was a bit strong for what kind of blog we're trying to run here. Criticism is fair and even welcome, just please restrain it to appropriate language.
2. You're criticism is warranted. Swart and Barchet are too low on this list compared to many of the other runners. Two anonymous posters have proved that point very well. I apologize, my mistake, I will go back through some more analysis and update the list later tonight. I don't want to get into the habit of changing predictions every time someone feels one guy or another is too low, but in this case I feel misplacing two runners from the same school seems too much like picking on that school and I'd like to correct that.
-Cummings
"I adore logic. I adore Henderson. It's all ogre now."
Delete--Chris Cummings
Very fair. Sometimes when doing predictions we get a feeling about one guy or another that might have a big day, but we don't sit back and look at the whole. And or course after years of WCH dominating it's probably natural for a rival school to subconsciously want to discount them. Good job reconsidering!
DeleteBut I do agree that WCH just misses getting in. A lot of teams have 3 and 4 good runners. But they are competing against teams whose 4-7 are more reliable. I think that's where they lose it. Of course better performances from the front 3 could help erase some of that deficit too, as they haven't been blowing anyone out of the water either.
Deletewch this year is similar to wce last year, strong 1-4 but lacking at #5 and wce last year was like 11th or something. Just saying.
Delete^Not really accurate. Other than Cummings and Diestelow, who'd they have? And wasn't Cummings or maybe Diestelow injured towards the end of XC season anyway?
DeleteKnapp still looks like he has the talent to dazzle-I think someone even said he could win districts and I think it's very possible. Swartz and Barchet are not up to WCE's #2 from last year but they should do well enough to keep the team in the hunt. After that it's the freshman, whose name I am afraid to mention for fear of getting it wrong and being reprimanded by the Henderson mob. Kid looks very good but with freshman you never know how much is left in their legs and how they handle the physical and mental stress of post-season racing. A little experience does help there. For example, the freshman Hoey, who actually did race for MP as an 8th grader, has looked a little fatigued lately. I expect next season he'll be a force though.
Henderson should and will finish better than 11th, no doubt. Frankly, I wouldn't know how to call this race-everyone looks good enough but everyone has shown vulnerability too, including "the lock", Conestoga. Time will tell.
My observation of freshman is much different than yours. For example, D. Alansky, stud freshman from DWest, (injured this year) ran a 17:26 at the ChesMont meet for 28th place. His next meet he ran 16:19 at Lehigh!! Smucker ran a 16:46 for 7 place at ChesMonts last week and he's capable of pulling off a similar improvement as the Alansky did last year. I'll put him at low 16's!
Delete^^Wce had diestelow, cummings, dages and dougherty, although it looks like dougherty didnt have a good race compared to his season bests. Cummings was 15:30, diestelow was like 15:40's and dages was right around 16:00. Then dougherty was like 16:40's or 16:50's and looking at some of his times, he should have been 16:30's or 16:20's as my guess. So they had a really solid top 4 but after that, their 5th man was around 17:20. Similar to henderson.
DeleteI think you need to go back and remove all Paul Short times which distort the rankings, then recalculate your results.
ReplyDeleteHenderson always peaks this time of year, that combined with Lehigh being a fast course, and i would be shocked if Henderson's 1-4 werent all sub 16:15, and sub 16 for 3 if not 4 of them can not be ruled out.
ReplyDeleteLeaving out Josh Smith in the sub 16 category is a mistake on your part. Also Jake Ilgenfritz could see a time in the 16:10 range
ReplyDeleteHis health is in question. It wouldn't be the first time someone has been injured in the season then came on strong in the post season.
Delete-RTJ
Considering the issues that Smith has been fighting as recently as the Chesmont race, I think Chris has this one right.
DeleteWhat is RTJ doing up at 3:11 AM on a Wednesday? Dude, get back to the runners life and clean living!
DeleteTake it easy on Chris. That's why we call it a prediction. It's one man's opinion. If you feel you can do a better job, then put your own prediction.
ReplyDeleteIt takes stones to put a prediction down, you know someone is going to rip it, sometimes fairly, sometime just trolls. But these guys do a great job on this blog.
DeleteQuestion from a newbie. I know the top 5 teams from district 1 make states. But then how many individuals from district 1 make it through to states? And these are only those that are not on one of the 5 state qualifying teams correct?
ReplyDeleteI believe it is the top 25 runners whose teams do not make states.
DeleteComber and brophy battled hard but i think comber turns the table.
ReplyDeleteComber 15:11
Brophy 15:12
Powers 15:17
Marston 15:19
Webb 15:24
Perlman 15:34 (inj?
Diestelow 15:36
Knapp 15:38
Sappey 15:40
Comber - 15:01
ReplyDeleteBrophy - 15:02
Power - 15:11
Webb - 15:20
Marston - 15:22
It's suppose to rain tomorrow. That course will be slow
ReplyDeleteweather is looking much better!
ReplyDeleteWill they actually post the Jv results on penntrack this year?
ReplyDeleteNo most likely not, go to runccrs.com if you want to see them.
DeleteI think they got rid of official timing for JV last year. There unfortunately has been some talk of getting rid of the race altogether
Deleteyeah, cause some teachers or parents complained about it.
DeleteThe JV race isn't officially timed. They literally just shoot a gun and run a clock. It's like that the JV race will cease to exist in the next few years which is really a shame considering there really are some great runners and future stars that run JV
DeleteThe latest I heard was that JV race is not in danger of being taken away. Principals expressed concern about kids missing school but that has subsided since X-Country runners generally don't have issues with grades
DeleteIf I remember correctly, Tony Russell won the JV race his sophomore year.
DeleteFrom what I've been told the extra cost of chips and bibs for JV runners was the biggest issue for schools and paying officials to stay and help with the race. So now coach kelly compiles all the results that are given to him by coaches who hand time their athletes.
DeleteEven the JV kids have to pay the activity fee. That's a disgrace to the public school system to deny JV the opportunity to run districts, most who have been working hard since at least late August and even the early summer. And the event takes all of about 1/2 an hour too. What a joke.
DeleteState and District 1 administrators and principals feel that all sports should be treated "equally". They say that no other sports have a JV Championship. That's why it's listed as the unseeded race. They look at other Districts that don't have a JV race and ask why do we have it in District 1. The coaches have fought to keep that race on the schedule to give kids a chance to run fast at the end of the season. One of the arguments has been that the other Districts should look at the District 1 model and try to copy that instead of the other way around. The District 1 unseeded race has been a great opportunity for many athletes to end their season on a high note and then build on that in the future. Russell is a great example. I wish that the results of all the athletes were published, but if you're in that race, take advantage of the conditions, the course and your fitness level and run fast. You and your teammates will know how well you ran.
Delete^Exactly, I am not on varsity on my team in D1, but running districts at the end of the year is a great way to go off and set a PR. The extreme majority of runners do not go on in college or continue after high school and just knowing you pr'd means a lot, even if there is no official times, medals or a trip to states.
DeleteI also love the argument for how D1 should be the model district, just because everyone else does something does't mean it is right.
In wrestling there is a JV only tournament which essentially is a district tournament. They do this for the same reasons. A young kid can get stuck behind a stud somewhere and never see action . a jv tournament or competition is important for future athletes.
DeleteI have to preface this year’s D1 predictions by saying it’s definitely the most difficult to predict since I’ve been trying the last couple of years. Most who have thrown out a prediction seem to agree on the 6 teams favored to be in the running for states, they’re all pretty close.
ReplyDeleteStoga and DTW have more depth to cover a bad day so I figure they’re both in. WCH may be strongest 1-4 but they all need to run well and a 5th needs to come up big. Pennsbury has a good 5 but they too all need to be clicking. CRN and CBW have come on nicely the last month and have a solid 7 so if a 6-7 has a great day or at least steps up to cover a bad race for someone else, they’re in. This is a real tough one to predict but I’ll give it a try anyway.
1) Conestoga – I really liked this team coming into the year and considered them the favorite for states. Now I’m not so sure. It’s not that they’ve run poorly, but I’m really not sure what they’ve run. Oakbourne Relays, 3000’s, 3200’s, 4000’s, 3 mile runs, and then who knows if the 5K at Centrals was an all-out effort. They’re tough to get a read on. They’ve got the front runner, a solid 2nd, good depth and big goals. I think they’ll win this and then maybe we’ll start the debate for states.
2) DTW – Similar to Stoga, they have the depth, maybe the most depth. Losing Alinsky was a tough break but they’ve had others guys develop which is common with a deep young squad. Sappey has become what this team needed, a true front runner. He’s a guy on the rise and if he continues on this roll he should have a good race Friday. The Barton’s came up big a Chesmonts. I’m not even positive who runs varsity but it looks like Farrell, O’Neil, Bullock, Ryherd, Blair all have potential to pack it in 16:30-16:40ish. If just 3 pan out they’re in. This is a team that probably should have made states last year but had a few who seemed to have bad day. They’ve got to be even more motivated to get through this year.
3) WCH – If I really had guts I’d pick them to win and continue the streak. 1–4 on paper are as good as anyone, maybe better. And the past results for this program speak volumes. But the drop off after 4 is significant. WCH always seems to have a good day at districts so I do think 1-4 will run well, and at least one of the other 3 will come up big. The difference between 16:50 and 16:40 can be huge, as much as 30 places, and I’m banking on at least one of their 5-7 closing that gap.
4) Pennsbury – So I figure Webb is at least top 5, which means the next 4 just need to do their thing and they should have 5 under 16:45, which should be enough.
5) CRN – Forest and Etrain won’t like it but I have them 5th. 7 strong runners, lack of clear top 10 guy but still a great varsity. This race is so close they could easily be 2nd or 3rd .
My spoiler is CBW, I really like this team, but I think they need a huge day from their 4-5 to drop the points needed to get in. Again, a 10 second drop at that level is the difference so it’s certainly not out of the question. If they finished 3rd or 4th my prediction looks bad, but I would not be at all shocked by it.
My hard luck teams are CBE and Rustin. For CBE, Brophy may win this which is kind of like saying your team only scores 4 instead of 5. They have a real good varsity squad and they could get in, but I think they’re just a bit behind the other top teams and could be the odd team out. Rustin is the newer West Chester school buried under the huge shadow of Henderson and the not so shabby tradition of WCE. I had seen them as a sleeper team this year. But with only 5 guys with sub 17 potential, like so many teams they were vulnerable to injury. It looks like a couple of their guys are down and out but they still grabbed 3rd at Chesmonts so maybe they can still pull out a top 10.
That’s my best guess. It’s exciting to see so many teams so close this year and that last 400 will probably be very loud and likely the difference between a good prediction and a ‘what the heck were you thinking’.
- RJJL
Rustin only has Voight injured but he's still running, Henderson is relying on a freshman and 5th man miracle so that's not happening, they'll still be top 10 though. DTW has enough to finish 5th if what happened last year is repeated and everyone comes through. It will be Conestoga, CRN, Pennsbury, CBW and DWT.
DeleteThe fun thing is that by this time tomorrow all the speculation and trash talking will be done. We will know who the studs are and who the pudds are.
DeleteEveryone should be peaking in excellent health if trained properly. That combined with a fast course, as long as the course is reasonably dry tomorrow, anyone who does not PR, choked.
DeleteWhy does Brian Arita get no love?
Delete^ great question-why?
DeleteForrest, are you calling out RJJL? questioning his analysis? Just a tad bit sensitive on the CRN ranking?
Delete^ great questions-why?
DeleteI understand why he's calling RJJL out. As long as nothing crazy happens, I would say Arita is a pretty obvious pick for top 10
DeleteA 4:35 miler hovering around 16:00 on Lehigh just last week is not an obvious pick for top 10 at Districts. In the last two years that's top 30. Maybe he gets it, but it's no slam dunk. - JEB
DeleteI wasn’t overlooking Arita, I expect he'll place well and pr, it’s just of the teams most predict to be in contention they all have a guy who everyone would be surprised if they weren’t top 10. Marston, Sappey, Knapp and Webb. Arita could be top 10 too, but now he looked to me to be in the pack that comes in 15:48 – 15:55. The last couple of years that’s been about 15 runners and 5 seconds could cost serveral places in that group, it could go either way.
Delete- RJJL
Rain ending this morning, so the course has a little time to dry. Boys AAA race is last. Race time temperature at 60 F, a bit warmer than last year.
ReplyDeleteDistricts is tomorrow so why now throw some top 10 predictions down...
ReplyDeleteMarston- 14:51
Brophy- 14:55
Power- 14:58
Comber- 15:02
Webb- 15:08
Knapp- 15:22
Sappey- 15:24
Diestelow- 15:30
Arita- 15:40
Sauer- 15:43
Yes, I know it's fast... but with a top 5 like that I think it's gotta be. Marston and Power are strength runners yes, but both have proven themselves enough by this point.
IMHO, your top 10 look good but I don't think any of them go sub 15:00.
DeleteI think Brophy wins and is the only guy to go sub 15. Knapp in 2nd at 15:10.
DeleteThat is 3 guys running faster than russel and 5 guys better than wilson's time last year. I think this is wishful thinking
DeleteWell it was pretty windy at districts last year, so there's room for improvement with the weather. However, it's not going to be as nice as last year, so it won't be as fast probably
DeleteTony Russell just barely broke 15 at Districts last year. I doubt a 14:51 will go down.
DeleteRussell basically did it by himself. With others to push he probably could have gone faster. These guys may be able to push eachother all under 15 (race has probably already happened but I don't know results yet)
DeleteLasalle takes down Ohara at D12's
ReplyDeleteWow. Didn't expect that to happen.
DeleteSomebody who has really popped up is Moser from WCE. It wouldn't surprise me if he broke 17 or even 16:45.
ReplyDeleteOr naw
DeleteCummings, there was a time in your life when you only ran twice a week? I don't believe it.
ReplyDelete-Crump
Any results yet?
ReplyDeleteResults are up on runhigh.com, or just scroll up and read RJJL's prediction, it's pretty close to how the race went down.
DeleteRunhigh has it ... Stoga over Henderson by single digits then CBW CRN DTW ... Cbe 6th and Pennsbury 7th
Delete