Evan's AAA State Medalists

This is my top 25 for the state meet this weekend.  Best of luck to everybody racing, especially my Mt. Lebo boys.  I’ll be anxiously awaiting the results of the meet as I will be in Lexington, Kentucky for the NIRCA Great Lakes Regional Championship with the Ohio State Running Club and can’t go home to see it.  States this year is bizarre in that after the first few runners, it is wide open.  Half of these kids could get 40th, but they could also get 15th if they have a great day, its going to be a crazy weekend.  

1.  Colin Abert - 15:37 - Easton Area - Sr

I don’t see any scenario where Abert loses this race, he just wants it that bad.  He isn’t afraid of any pace and it is very possible that he leads wire to wire and never looks back.  I imagine he will take the first mile out hard as he has since his sophomore year.  I don’t think he’ll go through in 4:42 like he did that year, but I think 4:45-4:47 is a definite possibility.  Ultimately, I see him taking down Russell’s course record and getting himself his first state gold.

2. Kevin James - 15:46 - Cardinal O’Hara - Sr

Other than Abert, Kevin James has had the best season of anybody in Pennsylvania.  He ran 15:11 and 15:22 this season and ran 15:54 at Foundation.  He has 2 cross country state medals and has run the meet every year since he was a freshman.  With Cardinal O’Hara fighting for a shot at a state title, he’ll get them the 2 points that they need.  

3. Jake Brophy - 15:47 - Central Bucks East - Jr

Brophy has been a force since he came out guns blazing as a freshman, a year that included a 30th place finish at states, the highest finish by a freshman since Vince McNally took 13th in 2004.  Brophy has proven that he can show up on the big stage his entire career and after his win at D1, he’s ready to go.  He could absolutely steal the show and take down Abert.

4. Casey Comber - 15:53 - Hatboro Horsham - Sr

I’m a huge Casey Comber fan.  I love stories of runners who worked their way up their team rankings and finally broke out.  Comber, on paper, is the best cross country runner that Hatboro Horsham has ever had, which is crazy when you look at the runners that came through that program.  Josh, Dan, Seth, and Sam Hibbs as well as Connor Quinn.  That’s good company to be in.  Comber has to be hungry for a win after coming up short to Brophy and Marston at D1.  He is my deep sleeper for the win.

5. Matt McGoey - 15:55 - North Allegheny - Sr

Without a doubt the best runners North Allegheny has had since Ryan Gil, McGoey has done nothing but make statements the entire year.  When he dropped a 15:55 at TriStates on the unbelievably difficult Cal U course, I knew he was ready to go for states.  Having run against and seen Matt run numerous times, I can tell you that he is not afraid to get after it.  He knows that he needs a big race for NA to get the team title and I see him giving his all to get them there.

6. Andrew Marston - 15:58 - Conestoga - Sr

Marston has had a fantastic season and is probably a top 3 for a lot of people.  I, however, think that he peaked at McQuaid.  He hasn’t done anything since then that blew me away.  If he has a great day I think he could sneak into the top 3, especially with his team vying for a state title.  That being said, I think sixth is realistic.

7. Paul Power - 15:58 - Spring Ford - Sr

Power was the story of the year in September when he dropped a 15:50 on the Hershey hills.  He followed that up with a 15:24 in a very fast Paul Short race.  He ran a 15:31 at District 1, but looking over the video of that race, he got dropped hard in the last 800 by Brophy and Marston and ultimately got caught by Comber and Webb as well.  I still think he will have a great race, but I think he may be a bit burnt up.

8. Aaron Gebhart - 16:00 - New Oxford - Sr

Gebhart flew pretty under the radar the whole year, but came on big at D3 to take down Sieger and Brehm, who had battled back and forth the entire year.  He looked very strong on the hills at D3 and I think he will have another big race come states to get himself a top 10 finish.

9. Zach Sieger - 16:03 - Red Land - Jr

Sieger is another runner who I’m a big fan of.  He just missed out on a medal last year at the state meet (28th) after a big breakout season.  He is yet to finish out of the top 3 in a race this year, but I can’t see him continuing that streak on such a big stage.  I’m excited to see the D3 battle continue into the state meet.

10. Sam Webb - 16:07 - Pennsbury - Sr

Webb, much like Gebhart, flew pretty under the radar this whole year, but came up big to take 4th at D1, running a PR 15:26.  Webb is one of the most consistently good runners in the state and isn’t afraid of a fast pace.  He could sneak into the top 5 if he is on this Saturday.

11. Zach Brehm - 16:12 - Carlisle - Sr

This year is really senior heavy, isn’t it?  Anyways, Zach Brehm.  Brehm just took 3rd at D3 to Gebhart and Sieger, two runners he beat handily earlier in the year.  I watched the D3 race video and Brehm did not look his best on the hills, which obviously, are a huge part of the state meet.  He has one of the most lethal kicks in the state, but if the hills put him too far back, which I think they will, I don’t see him finishing any higher than 11th.

12. Henry Sappey - 16:13 - Downingtown West - Jr

Sappey made huge steps this year to establish himself as a front runner for this very young DTW team.  Early in the season, a lot of people had their hearts set on DWest as state champs.  The loss of several runners put these thoughts to rest pretty quick, but Sappey quickly took control of the team.  Going from 84th to 7th at D1 in a year is huge, Sappey is ready to take it to the next level.

13. Ryan James - 16:21 - Cardinal O’Hara - So

Ryan James, much like his brother, is a beast.  He relaxed a 16:41 alongside KJ and Rob Morro to go 1-3 at D12 and ran his then PR, yes PR, on the hills at Hershey in September.  He had several big races to make sure the James name wasn’t going anywhere when KJ left and I think he gets O’Hara the second low mark they need to finally get themselves a team title.

14. Alex Knapp - 16:23 - West Chester Henderson - Sr

With the departure of Russell and Barchet, Knapp had to take over the historically great West Chester Henderson team.  Under his lead, what seemed like a lost year resulted in a 2nd place finish at D1 (only 8 points out of 1st) and the development of a great 2-4.  His times haven’t been as quick as they were last year, but I think he finds another gear and sneaks into the top 15 at states.

15. Jake Susalla - 16:24 - Plum - Jr

Plum junior Jake Susalla flung himself into the conversation when he took 3rd at WPIALs last week.  I think he was one of the few runners in D7 with the ability to break up McGoey and Wharrey, and with the absence of Jeff Van Kooten at the state meet, Susalla is going to step up and get in between the two of them.

16. Hunter Wharrey - 16:27 - North Allegheny - Sr

Wharrey showed up big this year and made some big statements early on, running 15:32 and 15:41, just barely behind teammate Matt McGoey.  However, I don’t think he is quite where he was at the beginning of the season anymore.  He went from being 2-5 seconds behind McGoey to now almost 30.  I think he still gets a medal at the state level and gets NA another low mark, but I can’t see him being any higher than 12th if he has a very good day.

17. Brad Foust - 16:28 - Altoona - Sr

Foust came out of nowhere last year to grab a medal at the state meet, running the hills in 16:34 for 21st.  This year, he grabbed a 2nd place finish at D6, narrowly losing to Alex Milligan of State College.  He has the experience that he needs to sneak into the top 20 and to get himself a quick time.

18. Eric Diestelow - 16:28 - West Chester East - Sr

Diestelow sadly came up short last year at the state meet, only finishing 64th after taking 17th at the district meet.  He has got a solid season in him, even giving Sappey and Knapp a scare at Chesmonts, and I think he is ready to finally get himself a state medal.  If he has a good day, I could see him as high as 13th.

19. Kevin Lapsanksy - 16:29 - Easton Area - Jr

Lapsanksy, alongside Abert, makes up half of the best 1-2 in the state.  He made big strides this year to bring his PR down to 15:48 and grab 3 runner up races behind Abert.  He hasn’t run slower than 16:30 this year and I imagine that he’ll keep his streak alive.

20. Brian Arita - 16:32 - Council Rock North - Sr

Arita, according to Forrest, is a much better strength runner than anything, which will certainly benefit him on the hills this weekend.  He snuck into the top 10 in a D1 meet that was certainly not as deep as the last few years, but top 10 is top 10 and he still ran 15:56.  I think he’s ready to go this week and grabs the final top 20 spot.

21. Ian Baun - 16:33 - Mount Lebanon - Sr

Baun proved himself this year to be a solid front runner for a Lebo team that hadn’t had such a thing since the days of Alex Moran.  Since Ian joined the team as a freshman, we knew he would be a very important part of the team.  His 16:38 at Foundation turned a lot of heads I think.  He is dangerous on any course that he runs and he isn’t afraid to take on hills, which is what you need at Hershey.

22. Jacob Heinauer - 16:34 - North Hills - Sr

Heinauer was barely on my radar at the start of the season, I believe I had him 22nd in my preseason rankings.  He did, however, prove himself big time.  He had possibly the best junior-senior jump of anybody that I have ever seen.  That being said, I can’t help but think that he’s falling off a little bit at the end of the season.  He finished 8th at WPIALs, a race that I definitely think he should have been 2nd or 3rd at.  I think he will still get a medal at the state level, but I don’t think he’s quite as on as he was at the season’s beginning.

23. Rock Fortna - 16:34 - Central Bucks West - Jr

Fortna made huge improvements from his sophomore to junior year, sneaking into the top 15 at D1 in 16:03.  He established himself as the #1 on a CBWest team that quickly became a team vying for a top 8 spot at states.  The only thing that worries is me is that, to my knowledge, he has never set foot on the Hershey course.  I still think he’ll medal, but he could suffer a bit on the hills if he doesn’t know what is coming to him.

24. Andrew Hanna - 16:35 - Council Rock South - Jr

Hanna is one of the most steadily improving runners in the state.  Each race this year has been faster than the one before it and after getting the final top 10 spot at D1, Hanna is ready to roll.  He was top 50 at the state meet last year, and he has the experience that he needs to get himself a medal.

25. Ethan Linderman - 16:38 - Canon-McMillan - Sr

I wish I knew where it was, but several months ago, I posted a comment on one of the blogs that said, “Ethan Linderman from Canon Mac will medal at states. Period.”  I’m sticking to that in my predictions.  Linderman is one of the most clutch runners I have ever seen/run against.  At WPIALs in track last year he closed the 3200 in about 63 to make up 3 places and grab a spot in the top 8.  He has three races under 16:20 this year, a couple wins under his belt, and I’m sticking to my word from earlier that he will get the last medal spot.

Just missed:

Yahya Soliman

Brian Delaney

Alex Milligan

Quinn Wasko

Jack Carmody

I’ll put together some team predictions if I find the time before the week ends.  Good luck to everybody competing and I wish I could be there to see how it plays out!

Thanks for reading!

-Evan Hatton