The question of the District 1 team title has haunted me all day. On my long run I did a mock race in my head and tried to count up scores. I've logged it on paper too often, and frankly as messy as District 3 is, District 1 is really doing it's best to muddle up this race. Here's some talking points about the meet:
Who is Conestoga?
By that I mean, what is their identity and what the are capable of? Talking to them at Paul Short I got a sense that this team could really win the state title, but now I'm not sure if they're a lock to win the District 1 title. Marston is a solid #1 runner and his 14:31 at McQuiad to beat Bryce Millar shows that he's the real deal, but the past two races for him and the guys behind him have been shaky at best. They're going to really need to pull everything together to even get out of District 1. Last season their spread was fantastic and it brought them along to a 2nd place district finish, but last season they averaged 16:34 at leagues and they averaged 16:40 this season. You could argue that Marston ran slower this year than last, but if he runs 15:59 for instance the team average is still only 16:38. Maybe they'll wow me at Districts, but until then I'll continue to scratch my head at what has happened to this team.
What will we see from CRN?
These are my boys. We all know this. And hey, when a team makes states every year but one (2005) who would ever predict them not to make it? The long season has yet to start paying off for CRN who had many runners last week still doing morning runs of 5 miles to increase millage. They're just starting to cooldown and they will be reaping the benefits on the XC course very soon. Arita is a pure strength runner so seeing him go out in 10:26 for 3200 shows nothing about his finish. Going out in 10:00 will allow him to continue to run 5 flat place all race to finish in a time 15:37. They do have wild cards though. Griswold ran 16:16 at Districts last year while he was sick, but he hasn't shown that strength so far this season. They'll need a big race from him, hopefully under 16 for them to make waves going into states. Ben Heintz is finally healthy from injury and sickness' that plagued him through September and he's been finishing workouts with Arita, if he could drop something big this team could win Districts.
Where oh where has DTW and CBW gone?
At the start of the season these two teams were being over hyped and I wasn't going to knock them down, since they had some solid results to show, but September is always over rated for predictions. At SOL's CBW won their meet, but would have lost to CRN and PB. They still have hope of coming up big next weekend, since they've got the best spread in the District (for a top team) and Brian Mass could bounce back.
DTW is still looking good and should make the state meet. They've got top knotch performances constistently from Sappey and they are competing with West Chester Henderson who is a lock (we'll get to this later) for the state meet. They got the valuable experience last season when they placed 8th out of a very deep district one. But still, that spread will have to tighten up for them to really take it to the next level.
Pennsbury, contender or pretender?
I'm never sure about PB. They've got different coaches in the spring and fall and frankly I think that's the biggest difference we see between the solid Webb in XC and the beast Webb on the track. Either way I think he'll surprise and place well at Districts. Sauer is the biggest wildcard for this team. Last season he came up huge at Districts and placed 26th in 15:55. He hasn't shown that type of shape this season and I'm just not sure what he has. In a slow race, out in 10:26, the Sauer of last season would have beat out Arita no question, but his 16:15 finish was very disappointing. I haven't given up hope however and I think he's big time racer so we should see a sub 16 again from him. After that the Wick brothers will need to race well and Bortman will have to beat CRN's #3 once again for this team to make the state meet.
Henderson: Finally a Legend?
I've been thinking about this quite a bit and looking at past results from state meets in the 80's and 90's it seems as though there are two, potentially four, legendary teams in the State of PA. North Allegheny is one of those teams. They've won a big time District 7 meet the past 8 seasons, but further than that they have been extremely successful in the past four to five decades racking up the most state titles out of any team in PA. Next biggest team is CRN. You guys can rip me as much as you'd like, but as stated before they've missed one state meet since '83 and they've won the most state titles by any team since 1985. I think Henderson is becoming this type of a team. They lost 6 guys who broke 16 minutes at the District championships and have made it back to the state meet, and I think they're at the point like CRN is at: a lock to make the state meet. I don't care who they lose, even with next season losing Swart, Knapp, and Gordy Barchet, they will find there way in the state meet in November.
That's all for Now Folks!
--ForrestCRN
Are the 4 legendary teams WCH, Ohara, NA, and CRN?
ReplyDeleteLegendary?
DeleteWCH with 5 state titles, yes, duh.
NA yes.
CRN, no.
OH, no.
How is Council Rock not legendary-- they won 8 state titles in 9 years, and have qualified 27 times in 28 years. That's a better program history than anyone else.
DeleteMaybe they're legendary to the grandparents who still follow high school XC and if your stats are correct then maybe a better program in ancient history. But what have they won lately?
Delete'Legendary' implies back to the grandparents and back to ancient history. A team can't win 'lately' and hope to be called legendary. Get your English straight ^^^ CRN is more legendary than these other teams. Recently or lately, no they haven't won anything. But they've finished no less than 6th place at the state meet except for 2 times in the past 15 years...who else can you say that about?
DeleteNobody remembers 2nd, let alone 6th. Who were we talking about again?
DeleteDamn, since 1885? I thought CRN high school was founded in 1970?
ReplyDeleteThey've also ONE the most state titles!
DeleteHmmmm, I see what you did there. Not bad, not bad at all.
DeleteCRN is definitely a legend when it comes to running, but the impressive thing about WCH is the school size. Also, when did CR split into north and south? Lastly, I don't think you should be so quick to say WCH will make states next year. They were much better than people realized comming into this year. Knapp, swart, and Barchet were all great runners, just overshadowed by the class before them. As far as I know, they don't have any really good runners like that for next year except for maybe schmucker
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DeleteSo many district 1 freshman step up at districts, mostly because running at Lehigh is a welcoming course. But States is another story...Schmucker, et al will not be feeling the love at Hershey.
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DeleteThe young mans name is Smucker, not Schmucker. Please try to be respectful.
DeleteThat was autocorrect, not me. And lighten up, Mr. or Mrs. Smucker,. This blog is not for the faint of heart. Misspelling a freshman's name is getting off easy-count yourself lucky. And btw, I do know people named Schmucker-are you saying something derogatory about their name?
DeleteEveryone in XC circles will get his name right soon enough, the kid is talented. - JEB
Delete^ agreed, IF he is talented.
DeleteAdvice to the kid or his family or whomever keeps posting (in an overly- terse tone) to get the spelling correct: if you don't make a big deal out of it, then no one else will. I think they're playing with you. Relax.
Be happy they're even talking about you at all. Ain't no such thing as bad publicity.
DeleteHe came in 6th at Chesmonts, he's talented.
DeleteIt's that freshman thing. Lot of them do great 1st year and fall short of expectations their 2nd year but I think he'll be ok as long as Kelly keeps coaching him and he doesn't get too cocky.
DeleteAs a German scholar(seriously)I'm certain the kids name Smucker is the Anglicized version of Schmucker-so it's a natural mistake. The term "Schmuck" is a Yiddish slang word for "dick", basically. It comes from the German Schmuck, meaning jewelry which was diluted in translation to the "family jewels", etc...ad nauseum. I'm guessing that sticks someone the wrong way, hence all the reminders about the correct spelling.
He'll always be little Schmucker to me.
DeleteSmuckers Jelly would never be mispronounced Schmuckers.
DeleteAw, heck I didn't realize it wasn't Schmuckers....so you would be wrong.
DeleteWow, whats all this about? Please don't assume that the boy's parents have posted here as one of these anonymous posts. I know for a fact that his father has not, for he is me, and its fairly safe to say that my wife has not spent hours on this blog as well. Good luck to all at districts and remeber things arent always as they appear, especially on a blog that allows anonymous posts.
DeleteDAS.
^ The blogs get a little silly sometimes, usually in the down time before the big meets, please don't take offense.
Delete^^It doesn't make sense to post on here to declare that you don't post on here, but whatever. Hopefully you'll have at least another 3 years to watch your kid develop into a top runner in the State. Just take it easy. I've seen far worse on here. A sense of humor helps too. Good luck to your son.
DeleteYou're trying too hard to figure out Conestoga. The central league is the weakest it has been in a very long time. I have serious doubts there was an effort being made to keep their 5k average lower than last year. Results also show James Cooper was not in the race. Which means McQuiad is the only race all season they have raced with a full squad. They're an enigma!
ReplyDeleteyep the central league was really weak last year when they sent two teams to states
Deletepretty sure the OP was referring to THIS year. NOT last year.
DeleteI forget and in keeping with my boycott of Penntrack can anyone refresh my memory as to how Conestoga did at States last year? How many returned from that team too?
ReplyDeleteI think late in the season it comes down to coaching. WCH, O'HARA & probably NA do the best job year after year of keeping the training & racing pace just right so those guys are freshest for States. The others haven't fully figured it out yet. But I heard the Stoga coach is a former WCH runner so who knows?
I remember hearing 'stoga's #3 left the state meet early last year? He finished ahead of Cooper at the district meet. If you place him next to Cooper's finish at the state meet, 'stoga would have placed 4th in 2013.
DeleteStoga has yet to put in a State champion type performance. As of right now I'd say it's wide open. NA and CRN are in the talks for winning it all, CBW, Dwest, even WCH can't be ruled out, guaranteed one of their 5-7 steps it up big time.
ReplyDelete^ you may be right. The race suddenly becomes more interesting in the back, or with runners 5-7 from the various contenders.
DeleteProblem with WCH is their lack of depth. They'll just only barely make states because the lack of a 5th guy, and if one guy has an off day in that top 4, their done, unlike DTW and CBW, who have tons of depth.
DeleteTrue, but 5-7 are a close pack, so is 8/9. If just one steps up, they be in easy.
DeleteThat's true @ WCH. Problem is they are relying, perhaps unrealistically, on #4-7 to step up big. Those guys, while nice runners, are not ready for that. Knapp is the only for sure guy making it to States from that team. But with a pretty lackluster district 1 this year, not making States would be a total humiliation for that team.
DeleteStoga's in disarray right now and thus, very vulnerable. DWest seems solid but I think the 3 big Bucks Co. schools are going to make it through for sure.
It's not so much lack luster as it is no clear front-runner. Of the 5 or 6 teams out of district 1 I have seen mentioned on this page, it's a toss-up. I'm not ready to call who wins, who makes it, who doesn't. It's like musical chairs and although watching Henderson run all 7 under 16;00 last year was magnificent, this has a lot more drama.
DeleteStoga returned 5 of 7, CRN 5 of 7, DWest 6 of 7, Pennsbury 6 of 7, and CBWest 7 of 7. WCH returned 1 of 7. Who said, WCH is relying on #4-7 ? Five of their guys ran the JV race last year and one was in middle school. I guarantee they wouldn't be "totally humiliated" if they didn't make states.
DeleteI think 'Stoga will be the clear winner of D1, it's almost undebatable. Based on their performance at McQuaid I think Marston, Nelson and Murray will all post sub 16 times on Lehigh, and their top 5 will all be under 16:30. Marston is also in serious contention to win D1, so they're essentially scoring 4 runners. CRN, CBW, and Pennsbury all look really strong rankings-wise right now, but they've all already run at Lehigh. People are saying that DWest and Henderson are underwhelming and that they're up in the 20s when preseason they were anticipated to be top 5 teams, but neither team has run at Lehigh yet. The fastest course that they've run at is Carlisle, for which times are usually 10-35 seconds higher than Lehigh depending on the athlete. Because CRN, CBW and Pennsbury have already run on what is basically the fastest course there is, we've already seen probably 98% of their potential this season. All of them ran at SOLs just a couple days ago, so its not like they ran these fast times early or mid season either. DTW and Henderson will probably drop an average of 20-25 seconds a runner at Districts because they haven't run anything fast yet while the other major contenders will probably only drop 0-10.
ReplyDeleteMy Top 5 Predictions:
1. Conestoga
2. Downingtown West
3. West Chester Henderson
4. Central Bucks West
5. Council Rock North OR Pennsbury -It'll be a real dogfight between these two for the #5 spot.
This is so dumb. Pennsbury and CRN average over a 20+ second drop EVERY year from leagues to districts. Get informed.
ReplyDeleteEveryone drops 20+ seconds as the course is flat and fast.
DeleteI think we'll see a bigger drop from CRN and PB this season because of how slowly the race went out. The first mile for everyone was 5:15 and the fastest group was through two miles in 10:26. It just puts the field back, especially since most runners like taking it out quicker in the first mile for 5k.
Delete1 Stoga: Has a great front runner, depth and experience. They are clearly #1
ReplyDelete2 CBW: Tight pack and depth. I see 2 runners breaking or close to 16 and the rest of the pack below 16:30.
3 PNB: 2 runners running around 15:25 and 15:45. The remaining 3 somewhere between 16:20 and 16:35. Depth is lacking
4 DW: Sappey running around 15:40 and tight pack running around 16:20-16:30
5 WCH- Knapp around 15:38ish and barchet and Swart close to 16. #4 at 16:20 and #5 at 16:45. Depth is lacking
CRN Arita 15:45, Griswold 16:10 and Laitman 16:35. DW, WCH and CRN are even in my opinion and an off day by a key runner sends that team packing.
Not a bad prediction except that after the performance at Centrals, Stoga is not a clear #1.
DeleteNice list. I say CRN makes it in but WCH does not.
DeleteSo wait, you expect a runner from CBW to run under 16:30 who ran 16:45, but CRN's runner Laitman will only drop 4 seconds? Just doesn't make sense to me. A little consistency. No reason to think Arita and Griswold will drop 15 seconds, but the back runners won't.
ReplyDeleteWell the pace you described of about 5:15 would be perfect for the mid pack guys in national. They would have a large pack running a consistent pace at the ideal pace. Meanwhile, the top guys would drop more time because 5:15 is obviously not ideal for them.
DeleteGoing out way faster than your finishing pace isn't necessarily beneficial, it's just often times necessary so you are not buried in the field.
I’ve been impressed w/ CBW all season long. Mass really had a bad day but depth saved them so I see them as the #2 team. I think CRN and PNB 3-5 runners fairly even (CRN maybe slightly better) but Webb\Sauer tandem makes up the difference. Like I said, DW/WCH and CRN is a toss up.
DeleteD West beat Henderson at chesmonts and in duel.....
ReplyDeleteThat's only because they're a better team.
DeleteHenderson won the dual meet
Delete