Monday, October 13, 2014

Quick Thoughts and Ches Mont's



Mid-Penn’s
Cumberland Valley looked strong once again even with Soliman as their 3rd man. If he can stay within the top 3 and ~15 seconds behind Wasko they’ll be set. A 37 second spread from this team is exactly the consistency we’re looking for.

Up front I love what Seiger and Green have been able to do at these bigger meets. Not backing down from Brehm who has now raced 3 hilly courses in a row. Demko helped solitify himself in the top 50 with a 4th place finish just two seconds behind Brehm. Weidner has another good race and Milligan is leading a fairly impressive SC squad that placed 2nd overall (told you guys to watch out). Matt Beyerle had a very impressive race (I expected him and Feffer to be together). Hershey continues to impress with a third place finish and Carlisle has some work to do with DeAngelo having another underwhelming performance. 

Slippery Rock
Griffin Mackey looked great in his win over Van Kooten who seemed (from pictures) to have gone with him and then fell back. I hope Van Kooten is okay come championship season, but Mackey is a force to be reckoned with and could be a state medalist on a big race day.

Eastern States Race
I think it would be awesome if more PA teams decided to go up to the Eastern States race. I think it’s a great opportunity to get in some amazing competition. 

This race went out hard from the gun with the best Northeast runner Alex Ostberg destroy the course in an 11:57 effort. Very few people have broken 12. Bryce Millar must love a fast pace, because after losing to Marston two weekends ago he came out and blazed a 12:02 for a clear second place finish. I’m not sure if Conestoga got caught up in the madness of going out fast, but Marston placed 16th overall in 12:33, which isn’t a bad time at all. This is around where I would have placed him at the start of the season (see Northeast Top 25). Sam Ritz had a really big race in 12:31 for 13th place! Ritz is really starting to get his XC legs under him during his senior year and he may have an outside shot at making it to the footlocker finals. 

La Salle’s 12 second spread beating out Conestoga? Wow. That’s huge. Stoga had a faster average time, but lost to them by 26 points. 5th man Cruickshank didn’t race, but this team will need to show big things back in PA if they want to be in the running for this state title.

Delco’s
Kevin James looked superb in a new meet record. He’s been so far ahead of his team this year and racing very hard after his loses at Briarwood and Foundation. I hope it’s not too much for him to handle before championship season, but I think he’ll be good. The team behind him looks very strong also. The times from Ryan James and Rob Morro are really impressing me and Pastore was 8 seconds behind where he was last season. If he places ~60th at states they’ll have potentially the best 4th man, which is way different than last season. It’s starting to look like the state title winner will score around 120 points.

NTL Coaches Invite
Simon Smith follows up his big race at Paul Short with a 16 flat clocking to beat out the NEB studs in Upham and Smith.

Ches-Mont’s
Well Ches-Mont’s is today, which I totally forgot about until this morning. After a tie from DTW and Henderson at Carlisle it should be a really great battle between the two squads. I honestly would be surprised if Henderson did not win this meet. They‘ve got a nice pack of 3 runners to work with up front and a solid 4th runner who is a freshman. DT West has under impressed this season and their runners have been very up and down this season. Everything will need to come together for this team to win a title. It’s amazing what changes in a month. 
The battle up front should be fun to watch. Sappey has looked good and his team will need that 1 point to beat Henderson. Knapp has theoretically the best times, but I don’t think he’s nearly in the shape he was last year. Diestelow had a nice two mile race and could always put himself in the mix. Or maybe we’ll see Josh Smith make a big jump in fitness back to where he was last season. 

That's all for Now Folks
--ForrestCRN

15 comments:

  1. Sappey and DTW over Knapp and Henderson

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    Replies
    1. R Barton holding off Smucker and Barchet was the difference.

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    2. Both Bartons were huge. Charlie picked up 5 places in the last 1/2 mile.

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  2. Full results
    http://runccrs.com/results/cmbvc2014/


    1. 45 DOWNINGTOWN WEST ( 16:49 1:24:05)
    ========================================
    1 1 Henry Sappey 16:20
    2 6 Ryan Barton 16:44
    3 9 Charlie Barton 16:48
    4 13 Jake O'Neil 17:04
    5 16 Shaun Bullock 17:09
    6 ( 21) Ben Ryherd 17:12
    7 ( 59) Matt Farrell 18:25

    2. 47 WEST CHESTER HENDERSON ( 16:48 1:23:58)
    ========================================
    1 2 Alex Knapp 16:21
    2 4 Will Swart 16:34
    3 7 Spencer Smucker 16:46
    4 8 Gordy Barchet 16:48
    5 26 Ben Berkman 17:29
    6 ( 31) Connor Mcswain 17:37
    7 ( 33) Apurva Deshmukh 17:39

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    Replies
    1. Dwest took the JV race in 17:23 so they really had 7 in before WCH 5th

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    2. If it's a dual meet Henderson wins 28-29 so they're at least as good

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  3. Berkman will really need to step up for Henderson, but both of these teams should make States. What are people thinking for time drops from Ches-Monts to Districts? 30-40 seconds?

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  4. I would say about 45-50 seconds for the top 3 runners and maybe about 20-30 for the others. The race went out very conservatively as it was clear that neither Sappey, Knapp, nor Diestelow wanted to lead the race. I think I saw them go through the mile in about 5:10-5:15. The course was different from years past, but in my opinion it was not much faster. They did cut out some of the steeplechase but they added on later in the race and threw in an extra hill. I see the top three who pretty much did not start racing until 3/4 of the way through the race dropping more time than the pack that ended up running with them.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks for the great analysis of the race!

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    2. Agree with the estimates on time drops. The race will certainly be faster than today. The chase group at Paul Short went through the mile in 4:50 - 4:55. That's 20 seconds off the top + any improvement for continued taper. Only a wet course could slow them down.

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    3. Yeah, I ran there, the first mile is fast, the top JV runner ran 4:55 before burning and running a 19:30. However, I do agree with you that they did take the race out quite relaxed.

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    4. ^And adding to that they did finish on a constant uphill.

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  5. At Delcos the bonner boys and Liam galligan ran very good races breaking into the ohara top 4 also on penntrack they keep saying James broke the lower merion kids course record but the central league course is shorter than the course they run at delcos.... Just thought I'd put that out there but watch out for the bonner boys in AA

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    Replies
    1. OH always seems to wear down in the weeks after tearing it up at Delco's and PLC's.

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    2. That has never happened

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