10/5 Meet Previews -- I will be racing at Paul Short this
weekend and staying to check out the high school races. Feel free to say hello
if you’re in attendance. I should be wearing black and red Muhlenberg Gear.
Shore Coaches XC
Invitational
This NJ meet was dominated by PA runners last season as
LaSalle won the Championship Race team title and Connor Harriman won the
Individual title. La Salle is attending Paul Short, but I’d love to see and
Pennsbury mix it up with some of NJ’s best. I think Webb could run 16:15’s
(Harriman won in 16:11 last season).
Great American Cross Country Festival
Thanks to whomever posted the link for the entries at this meet. Cardinal O'Hara will be going up against 3 other ranked teams in the nation along with Tatnall (just left the top 25) and a strong Bishop Hendrickson team who could surprise. O'Hara will be running both Kevin and Ryan James which I'm pretty excited about, and this race we'll really get to see how close this pack is and how their 3-5 guys play out since there has been quite a bit of movement from these guys. I think Morro and Pastore will step up and be about 15 to 20 seconds off of Belfatto.
As a team I'd like to see them take 3rd and place as close to the #7 ranked Brentwood and #11 Broughton as possible, maybe 20 to 30 points back.
Kevin James was 15:27 last season and he seems to be in much better shape this time around. If he can mix it up with the top 7 to 10 guys in about a 15:10 effort I think that'd be stellar. He is the 5th best returner from last season, but the teams/individuals attending always fluctuates. Louis Colson (US #16) and Phillip Hall (US #25) will be in attendance for us to key James's performances off of.
Thanks to whomever posted the link for the entries at this meet. Cardinal O'Hara will be going up against 3 other ranked teams in the nation along with Tatnall (just left the top 25) and a strong Bishop Hendrickson team who could surprise. O'Hara will be running both Kevin and Ryan James which I'm pretty excited about, and this race we'll really get to see how close this pack is and how their 3-5 guys play out since there has been quite a bit of movement from these guys. I think Morro and Pastore will step up and be about 15 to 20 seconds off of Belfatto.
As a team I'd like to see them take 3rd and place as close to the #7 ranked Brentwood and #11 Broughton as possible, maybe 20 to 30 points back.
Kevin James was 15:27 last season and he seems to be in much better shape this time around. If he can mix it up with the top 7 to 10 guys in about a 15:10 effort I think that'd be stellar. He is the 5th best returner from last season, but the teams/individuals attending always fluctuates. Louis Colson (US #16) and Phillip Hall (US #25) will be in attendance for us to key James's performances off of.
Grove City Invitational
A really small meet that was dominated by Grove City last
season and I expect them to do the same this season, but I do want to see where
Aaron Benka, Ryan Budnik, and Jacob Susalla are now that it’s later in the
season. Susalla hasn’t raced since his solid opening at RW&B. These are all
guys right outside of the top 50 in my opinion.
Pittsburg Central Catholic Invitational
This meet is a great preview for WPIAL’s every year so I’m
really looking forward to this meet as it is 1 of two big ones this weekend.
Many WPIAL runners haven’t run since RW&B so we’ll get to see the shape
their in now that it’s about a month later. The Martin Twins and Brent Kennedy
should dominate this race up front as they will try and prove they are worthy
of top 3 spots in the state. Right behind them should be the North Allegeny
squad. These guys were 10 to 30 seconds off the aforementioned runners earlier
this season and I’m very interested to see how close they will to not only
those 3 studs, but also how close their spread stays. Last season it was 14
seconds at this meet.
Other things to look out for are teams creeping up for the
WPIAL states spots. It seems to me that Mount Lebanon has the 2nd
spot on lockdown, but Fox Chapel, Kiski Area, and PCC may be able to pull some
pieces together to challenge them. We also get to see the next North Hills stud
Anton Martinez race again after his solid finish at RW&B. If he’s anything
like Casey Comber of HH he could be mixing it up with the back of NA’s pack
once again.
Young Kennedy might also be featured in his first big
varsity race (I’m hoping) and I’d love to see him against the top competition.
Also Jeff Van Kooten has been running really well recently and I hope to see
him mixing it up with the top 10 to 15 guys.
Salesianum Invitational
Last season Jack Macauley showed his potential here with a
dominating victory. I’d love to see North Penn mix it up here again so we can
see them in a true 5k this season. Penncrest and apparently Malvern Prep will
be in attendance so they’ll be some solid PA competition to compare them to.
Council Rock North will be attending this meet for the first time instead of
Steel City, but they are probably going to hold a couple varsity guys out
including Ross Wilson. If he does race I’d love to see him try and shatter
Macauley’s time from last season.
Paul Short Invitational
Brown Race: This has a bunch of class acts both team and
individually that I’m really excited for. Lets start with some Individual
Battles:
We get to see #8 Dominic Deluca take on #10 Chris Cummings
in what could be an epic battle. Cummings has had some incredible races this
season and Deluca looked so dominate at PTXC. I’m thinking 15:20’s to 15:30’s
for these guys. Colin Abert (#15) will look to mix it up with these two as well
as he looks show last season’s 12th place finish at states was no
fluke. I’m also hoping we’ll see Aidan Demko (Hershey) open up his season.
Right behind these top runners we’ll see strong guys like Bilotta (#31), Balla
(#43), and Diestelow (#46).
In the team race we get to see some great battles as many
teams look to prove they are worthy of the top 10 list. #9 Freedom will be in
attendance and they’ll be the ones with a target on their back after a really
solid 4th place finish at Foundation. They had a weekend off and now
they look to once again prove themselves. Right behind them is a slew of strong
PA squads including previous #6 West Chester East, Previous #10 Conestoga,
along with D11 rivals Easton. We’ll also get to see one of the top AA squads in
Pottsgrove who will look to prove that AA has got it going on. Other D1 teams
such as William Tennent and Twin Valley are coming off strong finishes from the
CR Invitational where they almost took down PA #10 CRN not to mention La Salle
from D12.
White Race:
Masterman has proved to be one of the toughest A teams this
year as they look to show it once again in the White race. William Penn Charter
School looks to knock them off as a strong Independent school despite the lack
of stud Ben Szuhaj this season, but Scott Mason has stepped up as he races a
few other guys who are just outside of PA’s top 50 that include Kyle Francis,
Chris Kienzle, and Billy Caldwell. Caldwell’s squad DTE should be able a top 3
team in this meet as well. New Hope-Solebury is also a team to watch for.
That’s all for Now Folks! Let me know if I missed anything! :)
--ForrestCRN
P.S. Also to note: Saucony Top 50 just moved North Alleghney to #8 in the Nation, West Chester Henderson #9 and Cardinal O'Hara to #20.
P.S. Also to note: Saucony Top 50 just moved North Alleghney to #8 in the Nation, West Chester Henderson #9 and Cardinal O'Hara to #20.
Starting assignments at Great American;
ReplyDeletehttp://usa.milesplit.com/articles/112468-great-american-entries-and-box-assignments#.Uk2OTBBoOKw
Also, I think Great Valley will be at Salesianum. Should be interesting to see how healthy they are.
The winning time at Paul Short probably won't be under 15:45, this course has a reputation for being fast but it's also fair, a full 5K. The competition is good, but there's not enough of it to push the race too low.
ReplyDelete-RH
Cummings has run three races at 15:30. I really don't think he will run slower at Lehigh.
DeleteGreat American will be a tough test for O'Hara. (Saucony #20) They will be racing against Brentwood, TN (#7) Broughton, NC (#11) and Saratoga Springs, NY
ReplyDelete(#21) Fast times will be run for sure as Great American is one of the fastest courses in the country. O'Hara's entire varsity squad could all be sub 16:00!
Don't know if all 7 varsity will break 16:00. Last year number 5 Chris Pastuor ran 16:05.
DeleteBut will Kevin James break 15:00?
Predictions involving Cummings vs. Deluca? I think that Cummings is a fantastic runner but all of the races he has done up to this point are probably catching up to him. I'm not claiming he is going to peak early, I just think that he is not going to race his best. As for Deluca he will run smart and win in my opinion. It's been almost a month since his last race and he has got to be hungry for another big win like at PTXC. When it comes to Abert we'll see if he learns to pace or if he tries to front run the whole time again like we've seen him do plenty of times before.
ReplyDeleteAbert needs to be out in front for races like these. He died at the States course because of lack of experience. Being 8 seconds in front of the field at States when you've never run it before was a rookie move that he now knows not to do. As for normal courses, he should 100% be up front with the lead pack.
ReplyDeleteI actually agree with you. Very few runners go through a season and don't have off races, especially when they run a lot of races. I think Deluca wins and Cummings comes in a very close second. Maybe 15:19 to 15:21. They've both been hot this season, but Cummings has had to race harder a lot more so I'm giving Deluca the edge.
I think it would be foolish to keep Ross Wilson off the Salesianum course. That will be the best preparation for Hershey. That course is as hard, if not harder than States (that's Delaware's State course).
I think O'Hara has a guaranteed 5 breaking 16 and maybe Kevin James' little brother going 16 low along with Christian Donnelly and Jack Nolan. They can run 8 varsity for this race.
I'm excited to see how NA does. After their feat at Hershey they have HUGE expectations. I also want to see Colin Martin get another win over Ethan and Brent to erase any doubts that he is the real deal.
-RTJ
Maybe Cummings has had an off race?
ReplyDeleteI think those are some optimitic predictions for Paul Short. It's probably still a bit early to see 15:20 on Lehigh. It'll likley go out fast as usual on that course, right around 5:00 for the first mile. But I see the pace slowing down as most aren't in peak shape yet. And the heat could be a factor tomorrow. 15:40's for a winning time is my guess. - RJJL
ReplyDeleteIf it's hot like today, nobody is breaking 16:00.
DeleteJames-15:14-7th. OHara 4th-20 points behind Tatnall.
ReplyDeleteSucks about Paul Short cancelling the HS races. Was it really that hot? I mean I'm maybe 60 minutes outside of Lehigh and I ran for 80 minutes around noon. Definitely worked up a sweat but it never felt dangerously hot.
ReplyDeleteIt was hot, not too bad for doing a long run at medium pace but for racing it was taking its toll. There were a lot of people going down at the finish area, or in the last quarter mile, even in the early races. And a lot of puking at the finish. Quite a few dropped out during the races too. I heard it was too much for the medical staff and I believe it. It does suck though, it's one of the best meets of the year, but what can you do.
Delete- RJJL
Malven prep won the salesianum invite with a score of 43 points. I think north penn was second with about 75.
ReplyDelete