YAIAA Championships –
10/15
This meet should be a lot of fun. It’s only a couple of days
after Mid-Penn’s, but we’ll get to see Reilly go against Gebhart up front which
should be a quick race. We’ll also get to see the type of shape Wilt is in.
It’s not listed on Penntrack which is pretty confusing though. Is it not
happening this year?
Top 10 Teams List
1. NA – Off Weekend. Not ready to
give up their spot to Henderson just yet.
2. West Chester Henderson – Great
race @ Manhattan this weekend. They’re ahead of where they were last year and
really on pace where I had hoped they would be. They’re right behind NA right
now, but they’ve got 3 weeks to prepare for the state meet and I have no doubt
their race against NA will come down to less than 5 points.
3. Cardinal O’Hara – Not a great
weekend, but not a chance anyone in the state is good enough for this 3rd
spot. Ryan James and Jack Nolen are coming along for this squad.
4. Lower Dauphin – They didn’t have a
great run this past weekend, but there 5th man had a great race. I’m
going to cut them a break and keep them @ 4th since they’ve raced
fantastic up to this point.
5. State College – They earned their
5th spot once again with a big win @ Mid-Penn’s. They’ll be coming
out of District 6 where they can pack it up and race fairly easy giving them an
advantage at the state championships.
6. Red Land – These guys raced really
well and Wilkinson is the real deal. Lauer had the week off, but even with him
they were still a bit behind Carlisle. I think they’ll nip them @ Districts.
6. Carlisle – These guys are all over
the place runner wise, but they constantly manage to mix it up. I think they’ll
fair well at districts.
8. Malvern Prep – Off Weekend
9. Freedom – Off Weekend
10. Council Rock North – Off Weekend,
but their #5 guy raced solid and a freshman broke out and ran 17:28.
Just Missed:
Conestoga:
They raced very well this weekend and I believe they're top 2 guys are
near CRN's 2-4. I don't think they will be able to beat them at
Districts however, but are just off this list.
That's All for Now Folks! (More league Previews to come!)
Also glad to say PA individuals are finally getting some recognition on a national level as Tony Russell is ranked 14th in the nation. I think Wilson has to be on their Watch list, but who knows to be curtain. I'd put him around 27/28 at this point in the season.
ReplyDelete--ForrestCRN
YAIAA is happening, the league just has a really bad track record when it comes to getting results on milesplit.
ReplyDelete-GBC
First of all, great blog Forrest. You're doing a great job here. But, I have to disagree on CRN making the top 10. I'm sure you know the team very well and they're pretty close, but I just don't think CRN is a top 10 team yet. I think they're about the same as WCE right now, maybe slightly better. CRN's 5th ran 17:09 on Saturday and they had a freshman run 17:28 in the JV race. WCE had a freshman run 17:25 in the varsity race. Unless I'm missing someone the top 5 from each team look like this:
ReplyDeleteCRN- 15:19, 16:22, 16:27, 16:33, 17:09
WCE- 15:30, 15:56, 16:11, 16:43, 17:25
If it came down to either team for 5th in districts it's almost a coin flip. Both are good teams, but neither is a top 10 team right now and it's going to be hard for either team to make it to states this year.
Keep up the good work on the blog. Great stuff
-DJ
I'm working on a top 50 for districts right now with times, I'm on a friends computer so I don't have the list in front of me right now, but I've got (off the top of my head):
DeleteCRN- 2 (15:04), 22 (16:05), 26 (16:10), 32 (16:16), and 100ish (16:55)
WCE - 3 (15:19), 17 (15:59), 24 (16:07), 75 (16:44), 120 (17:15)
I don't see how WCE can stack up against CRN. I watched them run a workout on saturday before Tennent and they were rolling on some tempo miles. Compared to what I was hitting when I ran 16:44 (5:12, 5:16, 5:13) at the same date the top 4 were all much faster, plus my coach had me at running 16:35ish at districts. I can't imagine CRN not breaking 200 points and I think WCE on a good day breaks 235.
--ForrestCRN
You should have gone faster than 16:44 with those tempo's
DeleteForrest, what do you think will be the breakoff time at Districts (1) for those not on a team to make states? Last year it was about 16:22. See any change in that?
DeleteA) I know I should have ran faster than 16:44.. thanks lol I also did them on a track in flats which is much faster than grass.
DeleteB) I'm not totally sure yet on that number. I should have district previews up on saturday since I'm working on them right now. I'm only up to 16:20 mark. But District One is still very deep and I think at worst 16:28 will be the cut-off, but I think it'll end up around 16:22. I'll have a definitive list after the league meets.
--ForrestCRN
Last year the weather was perfect at Lehigh and D1 was stacked, especially Ches-monts. This year doesn't seems to have more low sticks, like sub 15:50, but less after that. 16:28 is probably the number.
DeleteDOES seem to have more low sticks, sub 15:50.
DeleteI agree that CRN will score around 102 for #1 and #5. I figure Arita and Simmons for 65 points (30-35 each) and Griswold at around 50th. That would put them over 200 but still slightly ahead of WCE.
DeleteI figure WCE for 50pts for 1-3, their #4 is probably worth 60 and their 5th is in the 115 range.
Like I said, edge to CRN. I just see them a little closer. I also think that only one of these teams makes it to states. Your thoughts, Forrest?
Sorry, that last post was me.
Delete-DJ
Forrest, I don't understand the times you are projecting guys to run at districts. You are saying the entire top 5 from CRN runs 14-17 second season pr's which is completely reasonable. Then for WCE you have Cummings running an 11 second pr which doesn't mean too much point-wise since he'll be up with the lead pack which is less dense than the middle pack. Still it is a good prediction. Then you have #2 for WCE running 3 seconds slower than his pr and 3 seconds slower than last year at districts. #3 gets a 4 second drop, #4 adds 1 second and #5 gets a 10 second drop which is reasonable. But how can all of CRN's guys drop 14-17 second pr's and 2, 3 and 4 from WCE are basically running the same times as this season. I understand those were off the top of your head but I think those two teams are much closer than what you said and I agree with DJ in the fact that they are basically even (off of season pr's WCE beats CRN in a dual meet 27-28, this means nothing in who will win but shows how close they are). Also, if you say that CRN's training is better I would like to know how you know what WCE's training is and how you compare CRN's training to WCE's training. That is merely my opinion and if you disagree we will see at districts who comes out on top. I hope you don't take this personal, just trying to get the right facts out there.
Delete-TR
I say that because I was once a CRN runner and they peak perfectly for districts and states.
DeleteEx. Brian Arita last season: PR before leagues: 16:59, PR @ Distrcts 16:26
Ex. My Junior year: Never broke 18 before leagues, ran 17:25 and then 17:26 (got injured during the race so I didn't run at states)
Ex. My senior year: Never broke 17 and I ran 17:14 (about) at leagues and ran 16:44 @ districts and I should have run 16:30.
What I'm trying to say is CRN drops ridiculous looking PR's at their league and district meets. Why? Because they run high millage until then along with morning runs 3-4 days a week. Once those end (now) they start reaching their potential. Most other teams will run about their PR's, sometimes a bit faster @ Districts, but it can be clearly seen over time that CRN has massive PR drops. If Arita has run 16:21 I have full confidence he'll be just around if not sub 16 at Districts. You can call it bias, but I call it understanding a system.
--ForrestCRN
I would also not say that CRN's training is better, it is just much higher in volume therefore aiding kids who can run well off of high millage. I wasn't one of those people and I was constantly injured, so I want to make it clear I am in no way championing high millage systems.
DeleteIt is historically proven that CRN will run much faster @ Districts PR wise than most other teams.
Good point on CRNs history of peaking at districts...now let's take a look at wce's at districts last year
DeleteDiestelow -15:56 at districts (16:17 PR prior) - 21 seconds
Cummings- : 15:57 at districts (16:16 PR prior) -19 seconds
Dages- 16:22 at districts (16:34 PR prior) -12 seconds
Crump (5th man)- 16:39 at districts (17:13 PR prior) -34 seconds
I'd say whatever coaching they do over at wce has them peaking at the right time too. Maybe their coaching is similar to CRNs? After looking at last year, this might be closer than I thought originally. Good stuff
- DJ
If you don't PR at Lehigh, you're in trouble. The conditions are usually ideal. The competition is great and the course is very fair. Some slight rolls, but mostly gradual turns. If you've been training hard and not over racing, you should drop 30-40 per man. That's what the teams that are usually in the mix-WCH, CRN, WCE, GV do. Of course, guys get sick or injured and drop less and others have great days and drop more.
DeleteA team like CRN is going to run a lot faster relative to their PR then a team like WCE due to the fact that WCE will run a lot of flat, faster courses while CRN will not.
DeleteYou mean like Foundation?
DeleteDon't forget Alex Hughes (6th man) he ran a 16:45PR from a 17:14 PR prior. That's a 29 second drop. Plus if you look at the pictures of the race, his flow glistens in the wind. Damn he is soooo good looking.
DeleteHow many of the WCE runner's PRs are from the Foundation race?
DeleteThe funny thing about the CM league is that the WCE, DTW and GV guys really think that they can beat Henderson. In other leagues, there is more of a pecking order.
WCE has three front runners and an improving pack. They're top 10. OH is not a #3 and NA has done nothing since Foundation.
ReplyDeleteThey are training through and trying to win States/maybe move on to Nationals. They've run 2 5k's as a real varsity and ran exceptionally at them, especially at the States' course. They 100% deserve to be the top team, just like Henderson 100% deserves to be the #2 team, even though they have only run 1 invite 5k. Their dual meet time/4k time shows they're where they want to be and better than they were last year when they won. If Henderson runs their full varsity at districts, I think they will be the #1 team going into States and have 6 people going sub 16 (Russell, Barchet, Knapp, Stratman, Collins, and Waltz).
Delete-RTJ
But not if they train through Districts
Delete