Freedom - 17, 25, 34, 40, 52 = 168
Now if they run the same times they did at Leagues, at the state meet, this is how they would look:
Freedom - 19, 34, 51, 52, 60 = 216
The main difference is I expect Quigley (9th @ Leagues & 4th for Freedom) to make a big jump again this week. He has raced much better all season. But anyway you slice it, 168 is good enough for 4th most years and 216 is usually 5th to 7th place. I think these guys are the real deal, so watch out!
Also, District 6 and 7 Previews will be coming either Tuesday or Wednesday!
District 1 Virtual Meet (Top 25 Individuals Make States... not on teams going)
- Tony Russell – 15:02 - WCH
- Ross Wilson – 15:04 - CRN
- Chris Cummings – 15:15 - WCE
- Reiny Barchet – 15:27 - WCH
- Jake Brophy – 15:30
- Casey Comber – 15:32
- Chris Kazanjian – 15:35 (Look for him to surprise with a 15:25)
- Sam Webb – 15:37 -PB
- Matt Kazanjian – 15:40
- Andrew Marson – 15:45 - C
- David Fowler – 15:48
- Eric Distelow – 15:52 - WCE
- Alexander Balla – 15:53
- Kyle Francis – 15:54
- Eric Stratman – 15:55 - WCH
- Billy Caldwell – 15:57
- Josh Smith – 15:57
- Connor Holm – 15:57
- Brian Arita – 15:58 - CRN
- Austin Cooper – 15:59
- Alex Knapp – 16:00 – WCH
- Joseph Logue – 16:01
- Watson Hanson – 16:02
- Seamus Collins – 16:02 - WCH
- Paul Power – 16:03
- Stephen Dages – 16:04 - WCE
- Jonathan Perlman – 16:05
- Matt Willig – 16:05
- Ricky Waltz – 16:07 - WCH
- Ryan Grace – 16:08
- Dan Shalala – 16:08
- Gunnar Sjoreen – 16:08 - C
- Rob Simmons – 16:10 - CRN
- Chris Kienzle – 16:10
- Jeff Kirshenbaum – 16:11
- Alex Sauer – 16:12 - PB
- James Cooper – 16:13 - C
- Garrett Zatlin – 16:13
- Liam O’Connell – 16:15 - PB
- Sean Griswold – 16:16 - CRN
- Colin McDonald – 16:17
- Matthew Scarpill - 16:18
- Jabari Freeman – 16:19
- Mike Kane – 16:19 (Cut-Off)
- Adam Twombly – 16:20 – C
- Andrew Hanna – 16:20
- Jesse Coleman – 16:21
- Will Swart – 16:22 WCH
- Alex Ramierez – 16:23
- Ryan Tung – 16:25
- Lukas Marcelis – 16:25
- Matt Aham – 16:25
Team Scores District 1 Virtual Meet (Top 5 Make Stats)
- West Chester Henderson – 1, 4, 15, 21, 24 = 65
- Council Rock North – 2, 19, 33, 40, 97 = 191
- Conestoga – 10, 32, 37, 46, 70 = 194
- West Chester East – 3, 12, 26, 72, 140 = 253
- Pennsbury – 8, 36, 39, 84, 89 = 256
- North Penn – 30, 52, 61, 63, 83 =290
- William Tennent – 42, 45, 58, 67, 85 = 297
- Downingtown West – 52, 56, 65, 69, 73 = 315
Boys AA
Pottsgrove dominated this meet last season and return 3 of
their top 5. They should handily win this meet as a team. Individually state qualifiers
Daniel Connell and Christian Kardish are returners from HGP along with Jacob
Keiper of Upper Perkiomen. All should be headed back there again. Andrew Prior
of HGP looks to join his teammates at states and Matt Chiappertta of
Phoenixville missed the cut off by 4 seconds last season as he looks to make
another crack at it.
Boys A
This should be a really fun team race to watch as New
Hope-Solebury and Jenkintown tied last season. NHS returns everyone, but
Jenkintown only loses their #2 guy. I’d keep an eye on this one if you’re at
the meet. Greg Wagner dominated this meet last season and has done very well
this season so he should win this meet again. Another name to watch (other than
the guys on the top 2 teams) is Jonathan Capps of Christopher Dock who placed 7th
a year ago. He looks to lead Christopher Dock into the team title conversation
as they too return everyone from last year. Devon Prep who took 4th
last season only loses their top guy. The team race could get crazy.
District 3 Virtual Meet -
I’ll be honest, I really, really don’t like District 3. I’ve
never seen a group of more inconsistent people when it comes to races. I have
no idea how times will turn out or places. I’m fairly confident with most of my
previews, but this one could go very, very differently, so feel free to grill
me on this one guys: (Top 20 Individuals Make it... Who are not going with a team)
- Jeff Groh -LD
- Patrick Reilly
- Zach Brehm - C
- Aaron Gebhart
- Cole Nissley - LD
- Aaron Lauer - RL
- Daniel Green
- Daniel Neiswender -CC
- Zach Seiger - RL
- Aiden Demko
- Jacob Connors
- Brian Delany
- Mitchell Coakley
- Michael Urban
- Willy Bragg – CC
- Will Sponaugle
- Xavier Guttierrez
- Jon Carroll – C
- Drew Wilkinson - RL
- Grant Fey
- Josh Santeusanio—LD
- Yahya Soliman
- Dominic Digiacomo
- Jesse Mills
- Jarrod Cruise – CC
- Kris Lizins
- Joe DeAngelo –C
- Colby Geary
- Duncan Brady
- Duncan Hopkins
- Sean Weidner
- Martin Conrad
- Chad Bomgardner
- Colby Geary
- Jared Luckanitz (Last Spot)
District 3 Virtual Team Championships (Top 4 Teams Advance)
Again, much like the individuals this could be very
different. It’s hard to tell exactly where these Cedar Crest guys fall since
they haven’t raced anyone yet. All I know is Neiswender had a great race and
beat out a very good Brian Delany, quite handily and Willy Bragg was close on
him. I think Delany bounces back however. So this could go very arry since I’m
probably underestimating Ceder Crest’s ability.
- Lower Dauphin: 1, 5, 21, 31, 46 = 104
- Red Land : 6, 9, 19, 38, 59 = 132
- Carlisle: 3, 18, 27, 43, 46 = 137
- Ceder Crest : 8, 16, 25, 33, 60 = 142
- Twin Valley: 23, 26, 28, 34, 39 = 174
District 3 A
Brady Wilt dominated this race last season as just a
sophomore and has had a very solid junior year so far. I fully expect him to
easily take the title once again. In the team battle Veritas Academy look to
defend their district title and I think they will do so, since they return
their top 7 from last season.
District 3 AA
Kyle Shinn is the top returner from last season and he’s
looked great this year. He and teammate Jack Di Cintio just finished 2-3 at the
Berks County Championships. The team battle looks fairly open this season.
Shinn’s team Wyomissing Area ran well last weekend and beat a decent Schuylkill
Valley team that returned everyone from last season, but they were only 13th
in the district. I’ll be honest, I have no idea who will take the title this season.
--ForrestCRN
Daniel Green is AA which means he will dominate the AA race. I don't see how he doesn't win.
ReplyDeleteAs for AAA Brehm got out kicked at Mid-Penns but I can almost guarantee that he wins. After two big wins for him this season he's got to be focused after his not so stellar performance at Mid-Penns. Brehm wins, and I also think his team will get 2nd. This is just my opinion though, I'm open to any debate.
You put Colby Geary twice. 28th and 34th
ReplyDeleteHe's that good.
DeleteIt's probably his brother Colin who runs the same times.
DeleteD1. I believe DW and NP replace WCE and PB. I think depth of those teams will prevail.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to Moy in D1? Is he hurt? I'd think a course like Lehigh would favor his 800/1600 speed.
ReplyDeleteForrest has never liked him. Maybe he owes him money or something?
DeleteStop attacking Forrest, WCH has 7 people running so he must have assumed Moy was taking this week off and preparing for States.
Delete-RTJ
Why would he assume that?
DeleteYou're right about Moy and Lehigh, it's a milers XC course if ever there was one. But he hasn't done anything yet in XC to show he should be top 50, though he'd be on my just missed list based on Chesmonts. He's the guy I thought with the most potential be right there with Russell/Barchet. So far, Stratman and Knapp have come up big, but I wouldn't count him out yet, especially on Lehigh.
Delete- RJJL
Apparently he's not running according to Forrest?
DeleteIf he's running he should be in the top 50. Will Swart is NOT better than Kevin Moy.
DeleteWill Swart came up big at Chesmonts.
DeleteKevin Moy beat Will Swart at Chesmonts... AND he's run faster than 16:22 on a very hilly course (oakbourne)...
DeleteI don't think Coach Kelly necessarily goes with the fastest guys at districts. It's strategy.. Who knows what configuration of Henderson guys will run at districts
DeleteRJJL knows, he always nails it, because he's actually coach Kelly.
DeleteSpoiler alert. Henderson is running everyone at Districts. The real race will be in the jv between DTW and WCH.
DeleteMoy was 53rd at Districts last year, I'd expect him to be at least top 50 this year-probably better than that.
DeleteMy bad on Moy! For some reason I thought I read that he lost to Swart. If Moy races in Varsity (which he probably will) then I believe he can run 16:05. I don't have anything against Moy. At the start of XC I said he'd have to prove his XC prowless over Stratman, Collins, Knapp and other proven Henderson XC guys despite his track credentials, which are fantastic. He still has yet to prove that this season. So I wouldn't say I have anything against him.
Delete--ForrestCRN
You may be correct that WCH will rest someone this week. Swart can certainly provide depth.
DeleteDTW JV will most likely beat the WCH JV
DeleteTop 10 individuals:
ReplyDelete1. Tony Russell
2. Ross Wilson
3. Chris Cummings
4. Casey Comber
5. Reiny Barchet
6. Chris Kazanjian
7. Matt Kazanjian
8. Jake Brophy
9. Sam Webb
10. Eric Diestelow
Top 6 teams:
1. Henderson
2. CRN
3. Stoga
4. DTW
5. PB
6. WCE
I pushed WCE in the past and they made it through, this time I'm pushing DTW and I believe they will make it through as well. I think they will have all 5 of their runners between 16:05-16:45. I'll take heat for it, but I took heat for WCE last year.
-RTJ
If DTW makes top 5, they will be lucky. That young team is showing their inexperience-they look tired.
DeleteEast came up big at Chesmonts but they are seriously lacking after #3.
I agree with your top 3, RTJ, just not in that order. I see Cummings, Russell and Wilson and I don't see Barchet in the top 10-he hasn't looked like last years Barchet. But he'll likely be top 20.
That's all I got.
DTW had the misfortune of running Bulldog, and a lot of hype and expectations followed those Bull.... times.
DeleteDo the Oakbourne times not count either?
Deletei would say they're about as accurate measure of someone's fitness as carlisle. its slightly shorter than a 5k, but its a very hard race. I would expect people to be able to run about 15-25 seconds faster at districts than they ran there if its a nice day.
DeleteIf Reiny looked like he did last year I'd honestly have WCH going 1-2, but he just hasn't looked like that. Henderson is training for regionals/nationals though and Barchet comes on hard at the end of XC seasons so I won't count him out yet, just not that high for districts. I gave him the benefit of the doubt for 4th place.
DeleteI know DTW has shown their inexperience and that's why I think on an easy course they will succeed. They've blown up on semi-challenging courses and I don't expect them to do well at the State meet (no offense...) but I think on the easy districts course they excel. They ran well at Oakbourne and that's the course I go by, not bulldog.
I agree 100% that Lehigh is a milers course (see Drew Magaha and Ned Willig 2011 season) but I was just explaining why I thought Forrest didn't list Moy. He probably thinks he's resting this week.
-RTJ
You have Martin Conrad as the second to last individual in, but he didn't run at YAIAA Championships. I don't know if he is hurt or not. There are a few guys that I think will get to states not on your list.
ReplyDelete1: JD Groff-Central York-He's had a breakout season, 16:19 @ LVC Dutchmen
invite and 16:29 @ YAIAA.
2: Ben Wilson-Central Dauphin-Another guy with a solid season so far. 16:36 at
Carlisle and 16:53 at Mid-Penn.
3: Taylor Gardner-Spring Grove-17:00@Carlisle & 16:56 @ YAIAA. A bit of an
upset pick here, but he is moving in the right direction.
4: Alex Miller-Red Lion-16:52@Carlisle and 17:00@YAIAA. Only a sophomore,
he tends to run well at the right times. Also a bit of an upset pick.
Finally, I think Brehm takes the win in 16:20, followed by Reilly, Groh, Lauer, and Gebhart to round out the top 5.
-GBC
I agree with you about D3 Forrest. There is talent there for sure but much inconsistency too. I have a feeling Brehm is going to win this one though. He shows up big for big races.
ReplyDeleteMy prediction for D3
ReplyDelete1.Brehm
2.Reilly
3.Groh
4.Gebhart
5.Nissley
6.Lauer
7.Seiger
8.Demko
9.Neiswender
10.Delany
11.Coakley
12.Carroll
13.Connors
14.Frey
15.Wilkinson
As far as teams go its up in the air. LD have great low sticks in Groh and Nissley as do Red Land in Lauer and Seiger with a really good number 3 in Wilkinson. Carlisle has who should be the winner and then a fairly good 2-3 and then number 5 is better than both Red Land's and LD's. In the end I can see any 3 of these teams take it, for now I think I'm picking Red Land.