AA Top 25 Individual Predictions and Top 5 Team Predictions

To add onto this article, since I kinda screwed up with 'A' stuff, I wanted to give 'AA' the credit that is deserved. Here is my thought process and document that discusses the big pieces that I took out of each district meet and then it goes into the AA Predictions.

District 1: Daniel Connell of HGP looked very strong in his winning effort, while Christian Kardish looked weak at the finish. Connell motioned and even told Kardish to go at the 2 mile mark (where I was standing), but Kardish shook his head no, and looked very bad the last 200m. Not sure what is up with him. Pottsgrove is looking much better than they did at Foundation earlier this season. Toth is back up with Lopez (Lopez was way ahead at Foundation) and their 3-5 pack still looks strong. I bet they can compete well up front.

District 2: Dominic Deluca and Dominic Hockenbury are two class acts out of District 2, which could be the strongest of the AA districts this season. Deluca really came onto the scene at the Henderson Distance Festival dropping a 9:13 for 3200. He’s clearly put in the work this season winning big at PTXC and has continued to dominate all season. He could win states in a sub 16 effort. Really hope he goes to FL. Hockenbury is a stud of a sophomore who just keeps getting better as he attempts to chase the beast that is Deluca. Behind that Jack Tidball of Tunkhannock lead his squad to a fantastic performance and a win at the district meet, despite their struggles earlier this season. He was only 7 seconds off of Hockenbury. Kyle Perry of Scranton Prep is another one to watch. Tunkhannock may not have much of a weakness. They have a strong front runner, a great 2^nd man in Toczko plus a 7 second spread 3-5. Their main competitors for the title could be Scranton Prep who was just 8 points behind them with a fantastic 29 second spread at the district meet. They’re young (6 jr’s), but could step it up. The short spread will help them at states… if they can keep it on the Hershey hills.

District 3: Daniel Green (jr) of James Buchanan wins in 16:23 which is a really great time. If there is a man to challenge Hockenbury at states it’s him. Kyle Shinn, 16:39, was with him at halfway, but got dropped pretty hard. If he runs with the right pack I believe he can drop down to around 16:30’s at the state meet, which is fantastic for the junior. (AA is very young, if you guys haven’t noticed). Team wise York Suburban ran very well with a nice spread of 41 seconds, but an average time of 17:46 isn’t going to get them top 7 at the state meet.

District 4: Simon Smith (jr) of Towanda wins comfortably over Tyler Vella and Quincy Amabile who are two of the states better runners in AA (they placed 2^nd and 4^th at Foundation respectively). I think Smith has much more in him and will be competing with Green and Hockenbury up top, behind Deluca. Team wise I Mt. Carmel Area and Danville made it to the state meet and they placed 2-3 at Foundation, but pretty far behind Pottsgrove. MCA has a really solid top 3, but I don’t see them putting pressure on some of the state’s top squads. 

District 6: I really don’t know what’s wrong with the District 6 results, but team wise Somerset Area made it as assumed. I don’t see them doing much damage up front, but their top 2 guys should be able to mix it up around the 20’s/30’s and they got a fantastic 6^th man depth wise. I would guess they’ll be around MCA and Danville. As for Bedford’s sophomore studs, William Kachman looks unbelievable winning in 16:18… Nick Bastian of Somerset was 2^nd in 16:53. Kachman could be around 16:30s to 40’s at the state meet. Can’t wait to see him with more competition.

District 7: District 7 is very deep with talent this year and depth team wise in the AA category this season. South Fayette held guys at Tri-States which totally threw me off, but they’ve emerged as a total power house and should be competing for the title lead by Joncarlo Patton. The meet was won by Nate Edenfield (sr) of Uniontown Area who helped his team get second place and advance to the state meet. 16:44 should translate to around 16:30’s at the state meet since he won by 10 seconds over freshman stud Zach Skolenkovich of Quaker Valley. GQ was the last team to make it out of the district, but has ran very well this season so far as they hope to make a run at the podium with an injured 4^th man. 

District 9: Bo Dinger led a solid Punxsutawney squad to victory this weekend, while winning the meet individually by 31 seconds. Dinger is one of the top returning runners from last season, but hasn’t been running as well as expected, like most of his team. They’ll need a big day to compete for a top 5 spot.

District 10: Well once again Grove City is looking stacked top to bottom as they win their district meet easily with a score of 35 points and a 73 second spread, which doesn’t sound great, until you know they’re lead by stud Aaron Benka. He won by 24 seconds over teammate Ryan Budnik, while a freshman Braydon Pyle placed 4^th and has continued to make huge improvements every meet. This team has just one senior on the top 4. 

District 11: Kyle Gonoude didn’t have to do too much work to win a district title as he pulled away from John Miller at the end to run 16:52. He’ll be able to roll with some faster competition at the state meet. Also look for Miller to improve on his time and contend for medals. As a team Northwestern Lehigh looked pretty good for the win and had a 35 second spread, but a team average of 17:44 can only get so much better going into the state meet. I do think they’ll have an average of around 17:35.

District 12: Kyle Ortiz out lasted Ryan Rastatter for the win in 17:16. Ortiz is just a sophomore and has been running strong all season. Archbishop Wood (lead by Ortiz) has greatly improved since their 5^th place showing at Foundation. A spread of 55 seconds now and winning with 25 points at districts makes me believe they’re ready to be a top 10 team and possibly mix it up for a top 6 to 7 spot if they have a great race. 

1. Dominic Deluca – By far the best running in AA. I really don’t know what else to say. He is the only one in my opinion capable of breaking 16:10 to 16:15 and could go as far as under 15:50.

*should be a close run for 2-6

2. Aaron Benka (1) – Benka didn’t run very well at the start of this season, but has really come into his own late this season and Grove City is known for peaking well and having strong finishes. I’ll go with history on this one.

3. Daniel Green – I think the kid has a strong kick and finish to help him beat out the “true distance runners” behind him in Smith and Hockenbury. 16:23 basically by himself at Hershey is no joke and I think he can push this to 16:15’s with Benka at the finish, but gets beat out at the line. 

4. Dominic Hockenbury – Hockenbury is the baby (so) of this stud group of juniors and if you asked me who will win last year, right now I’d say him. But I don’t think he’s strong enough to outlast Benka or Green at this point. He’ll end up doing a lot of work for this pack and it’ll come back to bit him around poop-out.

5. Simon Smith – Smith is a fantastic competitor who surprised me at PTXC and a win at NTL this season and has continued to run very well, winning his district meet. He’s a small guy and I don’t know if he’s ready yet to hang with this group all the way and I think he’ll fall off just a bit at the end. That being said he’s proved me quite wrong in the past and could very well finish second. 

6. Jack Tidball (2) – Tidball should finish up this strong group of 6 in what I would guess could be around 16:25 to 16:30. He’s a very strong runner and has made huge strides this season. He kept up well with Hockenbury at districts which impressed me. His team will need him as a low stick and I think he delivers. 

7. William Kachman – I’m not sure if this is an over exaggeration of his ability, but Kachman has run gutsy and very well all season and I’m going to give him credit for that. I don’t know what 16:18 translates too, but I think he’ll mix it up with this top tier crew.

8. Nate Edenfield (3) – Edenfield has run some nice meets all season and had a big victory for his team at the D7 meet. I think he helps them once again being a low stick and grabbing just 3 points in a 16:35 effort.

9. Kyle Shinn – Shinn ran 16:39 in the D3 meet, but tried to run with Green. If he runs a smart race and hangs back with a second pack, I think he’ll be able to finish strong right with Edenfield. He’s had a very nice breakout junior year.

10. Ryan Budnik (4) – I think this will be Grove City’s day and probably their title to lose as they have two tremendously talented low sticks. Budnik may fall to around 15^th, but no lower. He and Benka will keep this team in it.

11. Kyle Perry (5) – Perry looks to lead Scranton Prep to victory and they’ll need him to grab some low points. If he can start the scoring with a 5 to 8 and they keep a 30 second spread they’ll be set to grab the title. 

12. Bo Dinger (6) – He hasn’t had a great season, but he’s very talented and stepped it up at the state meet last season. I expect him to do the same this year.

13. Zach Skolnekovich (7) – He’s just a freshman, but has not flinched yet against big competition or important meets, and I don’t expect him to break here either. If QV has a shot at the title, he’ll be the first step.

14. Kyle Gonoude – Gonoude has had a very nice season, but I haven’t seen him challenged too much. He was 16^th last season and is the second returner behind Deluca, but I haven’t seen him take the steps to show he’s ready to run with some of these studs. If he has a big race however, I see him placing in the top 10.

15. Andrew Maxwell – Maxwell is a junior out of D10 who placed 3^rd behind the two GC studs. I think he’ll show off his abilities at the state meet.

16. Jacob Thomas had to run by himself as Green and Shinn were far ahead at the D3 meet. I think with some more competition Thomas should be able to shave off time from that 16:55.

17. Jason Heid – Valley Veiw junior who placed 5^th @ District 2. He stepped it up and mixed in with the top guys pretty well. I think he’ll have success at the state meet with some more competition as well.

18. Joncarlo Patton (8) – The top South Fayette scorer gets this team started with a solid performance. They’re based highly on spread, so if he can get into the medals and give them 10 points or less team wise it’ll really help this squad.

19. John Miller – Placed second behind Gonoude and has run some good races. It’s his last XC meet and he’ll be looking to go out with a bang and a medal. I think he’ll be able to mix it up with this 15-25 group and score.

20. Tyler Vella (9) – He placed second at Foundation and looked strong again at his district meet. His 17:06 from earlier this season as he lead the second pack should be obliterated as he looks for around a 16:50 to 16:55.

21. Jacob Toczko (10) – Tunkhannock will be relying on this sophomore to have a strong race and I think he’ll deliver and grab himself a medal in the process.

22. Daniel Connell – The HGP senior looks to grab a medal after getting his first district championship this past weekend.

23. Quincy Amabile – He placed 3^rd at his district meet and 4^th at Foundation in 17:14. He’s just a sophomore and has been dropping a lot of time all season, but he keeps getting beat out by 

Vella. Could this be his race to get him back?

24. Derek Lopez (11) – Lopez looks to start the slew of scoring for Pottsgrove with a medal of his own. They’ll need him in the top 25 if they want to win this meet.

25. Ryan Burke (12) – Scranton Prep’s #2 man looks to get in the top 30, and I think he’s got a shot at the stand. He had a big race at the District 2 meet and he looks to try and run with Toczko once again.

Teams

If this comes out to even close as I have it, there should be about 5 teams within 30 points of each other for the title. It should be unbelievable close between the teams that step up and it is a race worth watching, no questions ask. Could be the race we get a tie in, if we don't see one between Henderson and NA for AAA!! :)

 

1. Tunkhannock: 2, 10, 23, 25, 29 = 89

I picked them to be the top AA team during the summer and then left them by the roadside before the district meet as they proved me wrong. I guess I’m jumping back on the bandwagon here, but I think this team is the real deal.

2. Scranton Prep: 5, 12, 15, 28, 30 = 90

Tunkhannock’s district rivals Scranton Prep looks to be the team that takes them down for the state title and I think they’ll get extremely close. If it comes down to the 6^th man, SP’s got it on lock, as they had both their #6 and 7 runners far ahead of Tunkhannock’s 6^th at districts.

3. South Fayette: 8, 16, 20, 24, 32 = 100

South Fayette proved me terribly wrong at the district 7 championships and I hope I’m able to give them the credit they deserve in this meet. They’ve got a strong grasp on the title and could easily take it away from the two strong D2 teams I have ahead of them.

4. Grove City: 1, 4, 14, 35, 47 = 101

Grove City placed second last season and looks to prove they can grab the title this season. They clearly have the strongest top 3 of any team in the meet. If Ryan Whiteman can step it up like he did last season at this meet I think they can easily take first. I’m just not sure where their 4-5 runners are in comparison to the field. They clearly have the biggest upside though, especially if their freshman runs well.

5. Pottsgrove: 11, 13, 17, 26, 35 = 102

Pottsgrove are the returning champions and they easily won Foundation earlier this season. These guys along with Scranton Prep have the best spreads and they have shown they can keep it on hills. Their performances at the district 1 meet didn’t show me that they were strong enough to get the win. They do seem to run hills very well however and could prove me wrong. 

--ForrestCRN