Tuesday, October 29, 2013

'A' Predictions! Top 25 Individuals and Top 8 Teams


1. Griffin Molino (jr) South Williamsport
Molino has run very strong all season and picked up very nice victories all around. He seemed fairly cocky in his interview, but this kid is a beast. He’s been in the top 20 all season and the way he’s running shows me that he’s in the shape to go around 16:10, which should be good enough to win.
2. Jeremy Parsons (sr) Maplewood
I know I know, he lost this weekend at his district meet, but I’m not too worried about it. At first it seemed as though Sebastian Curtin ran away with the win, but I think Parsons shut it off. He was undefeated going into that meet and I think he’s got the stuff to pull it out at the state meet. He’s the top returner from last season and I like what he’s thrown down so far this year.
3. Sebastian Curtin (jr) Mercyhurst Prep
All that being said (above) Curtin is a very good year and has had a nice breakout season for Mercyhurst Prep. I really like what he’s working with and he’s had some gutsy races. I don’t think he’s good enough to hang with the front pack however.
4. Carter Smith (sr) Eden Christian Acdemy
Smith dominated his D7 race in a 16:46 effort, which makes me believe he can run around 10 seconds faster at the state meet, if not better. I think Smith and Curtin battle at the end, but Curtin gets the best of him. He beat out Trimble in the last mile by 11 seconds and Trimble was 3rd @ Foundation.
5. Jake Parsons (sr) Maplewood
Jake hasn’t had the best of seasons and I expected him to mix it up more with his brother, but he’s been running better than most of these guys and I believe he can mix it up with the second pack in this race.
6. Nate Morgan (jr) Lakeland
Morgan ran a very, very strong race at the District II meet and I believe is ready to push this second pack. 16:55 performance there is very good.
7. Brady Wilt (jr) Biglerville
This could be a big mistake as Wilt hasn’t run nearly as well as I expected this season, but I’m a big fan and I think he can mix it up out front. He has the potential to be in the top 5 and seems to step it up at big meets.
8. Levi Upham (so) Northeast Bradford
This team knows how to get guys ready for the state meet and Upham has been running very well this season and is a sophomore stud. I may be pulling the trigger a bit early on him, but I’m a big fan.
9. Julian Degroot-Lutzner (jr) Masterman
He starts the scoring off for Masterman in this meet after taking HUGE strides this season. He ran 18:28 last season at states and ran 16:55 at Foundation. He’s continued to dominate this year and I think he mixes it up out front.
10. Morgan Schenberg (Sr) Saegertown
Schenberg didn’t run well at his district meet, but based on his place in the meet and on his team, it looks to me that he was tempo’ing and just helping his team finish strong. I think he’ll be back and ready to roll in this meet.
11. Greg Wagner (sr)  Jenkintown
He has dominated the last two meets he’s ran (conferences and districts) but he didn’t run faster than the season before, nor did he look as strong as I had expected. He has run some other good races this season and placed 4th at Foundation, but hasn’t taken the biggest strides since then.
12. Bryce England (sr) – Williamsburg
13. Colten Trimble (sr) – Southside
14. Matt Murray (so) Dunmore
15. Chris Hunt (sr) Kane Area
16. Nick Koncent (sr) - OLSH
17. Julian Rosessler (sr) – Masterman
18.Gabe Trimbur (jr) Coudersport
19. Brandon Devonshire (sr) – Northeast Bradford
20. Robert McGarry (sr) – Masterman
21. Hans Wentz (jr) – Maplewood
22. Spencer Cole (sr) – Oswayo Valley
23. Blake Behney (so) – Camp Hill
24. Seth Spystra (sr) – Veritas Achademy
25.  Greg House (sr) - New- Hope Solebury

Teams:
1.  Masterman
I doubt they'll actually have 3 medalists, but I think they'll get very close. They rested a majority of their varsity at District 12 and still almost swept the meet. Their coach knows what he's doing and clearly has this team ready to take the title. They won Foundation, despite the lack of a 5th man.

2. Saegertown –
This team has just continued to get better and they pack it up very well 1-5. I don’t think they’ll have enough firepower to takedown Masterman however.

3. Central Cambria --
This team has been beating AA and AAA teams all season and I really like the pieces they have coming out of District 6. The results are really messed up online for that meet which is why I don’t have any District 6 runners in the top 25. I think CC can have two guys on the medal stand.

4. Lake Land --
They dominated the district 2 meet over a strong, returning Elk Lake squad that finished second at states last season. This team could do major damage and surprise some people. 

5. North East Bradford --
 They’ve had some very good meets this year and freshman Garrett Smith has greatly improved since Foundations, but they’re 4-5 will bring them down too much for me to call them up to the medal stand.

6. Merchyhurst Prep --
They ran a strong state meet last season and I expect them to do the same this year. With Curtin leading the team they’ll be very well off.

7. Norther Potter
They look very strong again this season

8. New-Hope Solebury


I'll admit, I don't know a ton about A, but I'm fairly confident in my picks to around 10/15 Individually, and I'm pretty confident with the team picks as well. I'd love to hear all of your thoughts on the A matter :)

--ForrestCRN

P.S. The draft will be held tomorrow on facebook! We only have 5 players, aka there are many open spots! Please message me to play! (contact info on previous post)

4 comments:

  1. I know Brady Wilt hasn't run that well all year, but he has a history of pulling out big performances when it matters most. See Districts and States last year in both XC and Track.

    -GBC

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  2. Forrest - I was at the D10 race and Jeremy Parsons was spent at the end of the race. Really fought just to keep his form on the last stretch. Sebastian Curtin ran a great race and my only concern would be does he have enough left to repeat that performance this week. My feeling is yes he does and he may just "break the tape" on Saturday. Haven't seen Molino this year so I can't do a fair comparison between the two. I did see Carter Smith run a few times this year and definitely feel he is top 5 for sure. I still think Jeremy will be in the top 5 but he appears "tired" at this point in the season. The wild card is Jake Parsons - always seems like he could go faster than he is - will he on Saturday? Will be fun to watch all races on Saturday. Too bad you can't be there.

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    Replies
    1. Great comment! Thanks so much! I wasn't sure if it was Curtin breaking out or Parsons turning it off. He's had some solid performances this season, but not in as good for as last year. With this knowledge I could see Curtin challenging Molino as you suggest!

      --ForrestCRN

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  3. Its really sad to see the Penntrack state championship previews. They leave out Abert in AAA, fall to identify Daniel Green in AA, and misclassify Molino (say he is AA, when actually A). I love Penntrack, but its just incredibly sad to see how much they miss.

    AAA boys is the worst in my opinion. State College, Carlisle, CRN and Freedom are completely ignored in the team conversation. Whether or not you believe those teams will do well or not is an opinion, but they all deserve at least a mention in that article. And the omission of Abert in the article is truly sad.

    Again, I love Penntrack, but these are disheartening. THANK YOU FORREST for picking up the slack.

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