Sunday, October 27, 2013

Predictions AAA Top 50 Individuals and Top 10 Teams (With Scores/Places)

Before we start, according to the weather forecast, there is a 40% chance of rain on Friday. If it does rain, times will be most likely slowed down a bit, For Saturday it says 58 degrees with 10% chance of rain and 10 MPH winds. If anything changes I’ll keep you guys updated on that. All of it being said however, I will be doing these time predictions as if it did not rain and the meet is quick and rolling. Maybe not the best way of doing it, but now you know the perspective I’m coming from. I’ll have place and team place in prentices next to it, so you guys don’t get confused with that as well.

Boys AAA States
1 (1) – Tony Russell(sr) – 15:42 West Chester Henderson
2 – Colin Abert (jr) – 15:43 Easton Area
3 (2) – Ross Wilson (sr) – 15:47  Council Rock North
4 (3) – Colin Martin (sr) – 15:49 Fox Chapel Area
5 – Patrick Reilly (sr) – 15:51 Dallastown
6 (4) – Kevin James (jr) -15:53 Cardinal O’Hara
7 (5) – Ethan Martin (sr) – 15:54 Fox Chapel Area
8 (6) – Zach Brehm (jr) – 15:57 Carlisle
9 (7) – Chris Kazanjian (sr) – 15:59 Penncrest
10 – Jake Brophy (so) – 16:00 Central Bucks East
11 (8) – Matt McGoey (jr) – 16:04 North Allegheny
12(9) – Matt Kazanjian (sr) – 16:05 Penncrest
13 – Aaron Gebhart (jr) – 16:05 New Oxford
14 (10) – Sam Webb (jr) – 16:08 Pennsbury – Finds himself in the same spot as last year
15 (11) – Reiny Barchet (sr) – 16:09 West Chester Henderson
16 (12) – Cole Nissley (sr) – 16:11 Lower Dauphin
17 – Brian Delany (so) – 16:12 Manheim Township
18 (13) – Seamus Love (jr) – 16:15 North Allegheny
19 – Chris Cummings (sr) – 16:16 West Chester East
20 (14) – Jim Belfatto (sr) – 16:18 Cardinal O’Hara
21 – Jacob Connors (jr) – 16:19 Wilson
22 – Alexander Balla (sr) – 16:20 Quakertown
23 (15) – Alex Knapp (jr) – 16:21 West Chester Henderson
24 (16) – Cordon Louco (sr) – 16:21 North Allegheny
25 (17) – William Cather (sr) – 16:22 State College
26 – Ryan Grace (sr) – 16:22 North Penn
27 – Zach Seiger (so) – 16:22 Red Land
28 – Aiden Demko (jr) – 16:23 Hershey
29 – Casey Comber (jr) – 16:24 Hatboro Horsham
30 (18) – Hunter Wharrey (jr) – 16:25 North Allegheny
31 – Josh Smith (jr) – 16:26 Avon Grove
32 – Jeff Van Kooten (jr) – 16:26 Pittsburgh Central Catholic
33 – David Fowler (sr) – 16:27 Haverford
34 (19) – Todd Gunzenhauser (so) – 16:28 Mount Lebanon
35 – Paul Power (jr) – 16:28 Spring Ford
36 (20) – Scott Seel (jr) – 16:28 North Allegheny
37 (21) – Seamus Collins (sr) – 16:29 West Chest Henderson
38 – Jonathan Perlman (jr) – 16:30 Lower Merion
39 – JD Groff (sr) – 16:30 Central York
40 (22) – Ben Ziegler (jr) – 16:31 Freedom
41 – Anton Martinez (sr) – 16:33 North Hills
42 (23) – Andrew Marston (jr) – 16:33 Conestoga
43 – Kyle Francis (sr) – 16:35 Bensalem
44 (24) -  Eric Stratman (sr) – 16:35 West Chester Henderson
45 (25) -  Jon Carroll (sr) – 16:36 Carlisle
46 (26) - Ricky Waltz (sr) – 16:36 West Chester Henderson
47 – Dan Shalala (sr) – 16:37 Plymouth Whitemarsh
48 – Gabe Lamm (jr) – 16:37 Whitehall
49 (27) – Mitch Coackley (sr) – 16:37 Central Dauphin
50 (28) – Dan Quigley (so) – 16:38 Freedom

Team Scores


1. West Chester Henderson: (1, 11, 15, 21, 24, 26, 36) = 72
2. North Allegheny: (8, 13, 16, 18, 20, 46, 53) = 75
3. Cardinal O’Hara: (4, 14, 29, 32, 38) = 117
4. Freedom: (22, 28, 36, 37, 47) = 170
5. Conestoga (23, 31, 40, 41, 49) = 184
6. Council Rock North: (2, 30, 35, 44, 75) = 186
7. Fox Chapel Area (3, 5, 51, 59, 77) = 195
8. State College: (17, 33, 45, 50, 61) = 206
9. Carlisle (6, 25, 48, 57, 70) = 206
10. Mount Lebanon (19, 43, 52, 62, 64) = 240
11. Pennsbury (10, 34, 42, 67, 97) = 250
12. Penncrest (7, 9, 76, 78, 85) = 255

 I will do a write up tonight explaining the top 25 individuals and the top 10 teams for AAA. Tomorrow look for Top 25 Individuals in both A and AA

--ForrestCRN

22 comments:

  1. NA needs to be taken seriously, but they're overrated.

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  2. Very solid list, although I can't see Russell only winning by a second, especially if Abert goes out too fast. I think it will be more like:

    WCH: 1, 11, 14, 19, 20 = 65
    NA: 9, 15, 16, 17, 21 = 78

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, Henderson scored 69 points last year, and they're undoubtedly better this year. No way they score more points this year than last year

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    2. I agree with this team wise, if Abert's going out in 4:35 then Russell, Wilson, and Martin will beat him. While I think this race will be quick up front, I don't think that many people will go sub 16.

      Top 5:
      1. Russell 15: 38-ish (side note -he thought he could've gone sub 14:50 at districts without the wind)
      2. Ross Wilson 15:44
      3. Colin Martin 15:48
      4. Colin Abert. 15:51
      5. Kevin James 15:54

      After this I think it will be really tightly packed and up to the sprint finish. I think Cummings and Barchet can be top 10 though. And Comber will most likely medal n my mind.

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  3. Individuals:

    1. (1) Tony Russell - West Chester Henderson
    2. (2) Ethan Martin - Fox Chapel
    3. (3) Ross Wilson - Council Rock North
    4. (4) Colin Martin - Fox Chapel
    5. Colin Abert - Easton
    6. (5) Reiny Barchet - West Chester Henderson
    7. (6) Kevin James - Cardinal O'Hara
    8. (7) Zach Brehm - Carlisle
    9. Chris Cummings - West Chester East
    10. Jake Brophy - Central Bucks East
    11. (8) Chris Kazanjian - Penncrest
    12. Patrick Reilly - Dallastown
    13. (9) Matt Kazanjian - Penncrest
    14. (10) Matt McGoey - North Allegheny
    15. (11) Sam Webb - Pennsbury
    16. (12) Jim Belfatto - Cardinal O'Hara
    17. (13) Alex Knapp - West Chester Henderson
    18. (14) Cordon Louco - North Allegheny
    19. Casey Comber - Hatboro Horsham
    20. Eric Diestelow - West Chester East
    21. (15) Cole Nissley - Lower Dauphin
    22. (16) Seamus Love - North Allegheny
    23. Matt Willig - Great Valley
    24. (17) Eric Stratman - West Chester Henderson
    25. (18) Will Cather - State College
    26. (19) Seamus Collins - West Chester Henderson
    27. Alexander Balla - Quakertown
    28. (20) Hunter Wharrey - North Allegheny
    29. Dominic Stroh - Altoona
    30. Josh Smith - Avon Grove
    31. (21) Scott Seel - North Allegheny
    32. Paul Power - Spring Ford
    33. Jeff Van Kooten - Pittsburgh Central Catholic
    34. Caleb Wakeley - Shaler
    35. Brendan Bilotta - La Salle College
    36. (22) Todd Gunzenhauser - Mount Lebanon
    37. Aaron Gebhart - New Oxford
    38. Ryan Grace - North Penn
    39. Kyle Francis - Bensalem
    40. Patrick Miller - Kiski
    41. Nathan Sloan - Hampton
    42. (23) Andrew Marston - Conestoga
    43. Jacob Connors - Wilson
    44. Jonathan Perlman - Lower Merion
    45. David Fowler - Haverford Township
    46. (24) Brian Arita - Council Rock North
    47. Anton Martinez - North Hills
    48. Jake Susalla - Plum
    49. (25) Ben Ziegler - Freedom
    50. Billy Caldwell - Downingtown East

    Teams:

    1. West Chester Henderson - 55
    2. North Allegheny - 81
    3. Cardinal O'Hara
    4. Council Rock North
    5. Conestoga

    Forrest, I'd like to point out that Red Land did not qualify as a team out of District 3, and therefore your team scores must be altered a bit.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. 1. Tony Russell WCH
      2. Kevin James OH
      3. Ross Wilson CRN
      4. Ethan Martin FC
      5. Colin Martin FC
      6. Zach Brehm Carlisle
      7. Colin Abert Easton
      8. Jake Brophy CBE
      9. Chris Cummings WCE
      10. Reiny Barchet WCH
      11. Patrick Reilly Dallastown
      12. Chris Kazanjian Penncrest
      13. Alex Knapp WCH
      14. Matt McGoey NA
      15. Casey Comber HH
      16. Sam Webb Pennsbury
      17. Matt Kazanjian Penncrest
      18. Jim Belfatto OH
      19. Will Cather SC
      20. Cordon Luoco NA
      21. Seamus Love NA
      22. Josh Smith AG
      23. Eric Stratman WCH
      24. Seamus Collins WCH
      25. Dominic Stroh Altoona
      26. Scott Steel NA
      27. Eric Diestelow WCE
      28. Cole Nissley LD
      29. Todd Guzenhauser ML
      30. Hunter Wharrey NA
      31. Matt Willig GV
      32. Jeff Van Kooten PCC
      33. Billy Caldwell DTE
      34. Aaron Gebhart New Oxford
      35. Nathan Sloan Hampton
      36. Alexander Balla Quakertown
      37. Paul Power Spring Ford
      38. Andrew Marston Conestoga
      39. Anton Martinez North Hills
      40. Jacob Connors Wilson
      41. Mitch Coakley Central Dauphin
      42. Jon Carroll Carlisle
      43. Ryan Grace NP
      44. Kevin Moy WCH
      45. Ben Ziegler Freedom
      46. Zach Sieger Red Land
      47. Brian Delaney Manheim
      48. David Fowler Haverford
      49. Caleb Wakeley Shaler
      50. Drew Pastore OH

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  4. What about lower dauphin?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Groh is out for the season, from what I've heard. I think CRN and Conestoga should be lower and State College should be higher. Very good top 50 list though.

      Delete
    2. No Groh = No Lower Dauphin

      Delete
  5. 1: Russell-15:35
    2: Wilson-15:45
    3: E. Martin-15:48
    4: Reilly-15:51
    5: Abert-15:52
    6: C. Martin-15:54
    7: Brophy-15:55
    8: Brehm-15:57
    9: Gebhart-15:59
    10: James-16:00

    I think Russell will end up running this a lot like he ran at Districts, pulling away for the W in the last mile or so. Wilson has run well all year, and I think that culminates in a second place finish for him. The one pick I have that I could see going very wrong would be Brehm. He has run well on flat, fast courses, but has struggled on the tougher courses. That being said, the kid is a racer, and always steps up when it means the most.

    -GBC

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Three District 3 runners in the top 10? Not a chance. Parkview is too hard to run well two weeks in a row. You've got Reilly and Gebhart both too high.

      Delete
  6. Hey Forrest, do you plan on doing a fantasy draft for states like etrain always did?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes I will be! Thanks for the reminder :)

      --ForrestCRN

      Delete
  7. 1. (1) Tony Russell - 15:36 - West Chester Henderson
    2. (2) Ross Wilson - 15:43 - Council Rock North
    3. (3) Ethan Martin - 15:47 - Fox Chapel Area
    4. (4) Colin Martin - 15:49 - Fox Chapel Area
    5. (5) Kevin James - 15:53 - Cardinal O'Hara
    6. Jake Brophy - 15:57 - Central Bucks East
    7. Patrick Reilly - 15:59 - Dallastown
    8. Colin Abert - 16:01 - Easton
    9. (6) Zach Brehm - 16:04 - Carlisle
    10. (7) Matt Kazanjian - 16:07 - Penncrest
    11. Aaron Gebhart - 16:11 - New Oxford
    12. Chris Cummings - 16:12 - West Chester East
    13. (8) Matt Kazanjian - 16:13 - Penncrest
    14. (9) Cole Nissley - 16:17 - Lower Dauphin
    15. (10) Sam Webb- 16:18 - Pennsbury
    16. (11) Reiny Barchet - 16:19 - West Chester Henderson
    17. (12) Matt Mcgoey - 16:20 - North Allegheny
    18. (13) Jim Belfatto - 16:24 - Cardinal O'Hara
    19. (14) Alex Knapp - 16:24 - West Chester Henderson
    20. Brian Delany - 16:26 - Manheim Township
    21. (15) Will Cather - 16:26 - State College Area
    22. Casey Comber - 16:26 - Hatboro Horsham
    23. (16) Cordon Luoco - 16:28 - North Allegheny
    24. (17) Seamus Collins - 16:30 - West Chester Henderson
    25. (18) Eric Stratman - 16:31 - West Chester Henderson
    26. Alexander Balla - 16:33 - Quakertown
    27. (19) Todd Gunzenhauser - 16:33 - Mount Lebanon
    28. Eric Diestelow - 16:34 - West Chester East
    29. Jacob Connors - 16:36 - Wilson
    30. (20) Seamus Love - 16:36 - North Allegheny
    31. Aiden Demko - 16:37 - Hershey
    32. Paul Power - 16:37 - Spring Ford
    33. Dominic Stroh - 16:38 - Altoona
    34. Jeff Van Kooten - 16:40 - Pittsburgh Central Catholic
    35. (21) Scott Seel - 16:41 - North Allegheny
    36. Josh Smith - 16:41 - Avon Grove
    37. (22) Hunter Wharrey - 16:42 - North Allegheny
    38. Ryan Grace - 16:42 - North Penn
    39. David Fowl - 16:42 - Haverford
    40. (23) Ben Ziegler - 16:43 - Freedom
    41. Zach Sieger - 16:43 - Red Land
    42. (24) Andrew Marston - 16:44 - Conestoga
    43. Jonathan Perlman - 16:45 - Lower Merion
    44. (25) Ben Quigley - 16:45 - Freedom
    45. (26) Ricky Waltz - 16:46 - West Chester Henderson
    46. (27) Kevin Moy - 16:47 - West Chester Henderson
    47. JD Groff - 16:49 - Central York
    48. (28) Jon Carroll - 16:50 - Carlisle
    49. Kyle Francis - 16:51 - Bensalem
    50. (29) Ian Baun - 16:53 - Mount Lebanon

    Team Scores:
    1. West Chester Henderson - 1, 11, 14, 17, 18 = 61
    2. North Allegheny - 12, 16, 20, 21, 22 = 91
    3. Cardinal O'Hara - 5, 13, 31, 34, 40 =123
    4. Council Rock North - 2, 32, 36, 42, 48 =160
    5. Freedom - 23, 25, 35, 38, 41 = 162
    6. Fox Chapel Area - 3, 4, 52, 57, 62 =178
    7. Conestoga - 24, 33, 38, 43, 47 = 185
    8. Mount Lebanon - 19, 29, 40, 44, 61 = 193

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm interested in why you believe CRN's 5th guy will perform so well. He was 25 seconds behind Stoga's 5th at districts and here you have him placing righing behind Stoga's 5th man...

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  8. How on earth is Matt Kazanjian going to get both 10th and 13th?

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    Replies
    1. Have you seen him run? He's that good!.

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    2. Double chip timed one shoe flies off with a huge final kick

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    3. Single chip timed, Cummings passes out right before finish, Matt carries him across the line. Win.

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    4. He's been doing it all year, people just think he has a twin named Chris.

      Delete
  9. Forrest, did you overlook Diestelow? He beat Marston, Collins, and Arita at districts and was a top 50 guy last year just ahead of Belfatto. I can't see him not finishing top 50.

    ReplyDelete