Russell has shown over and over again this season that he is
the big gun in PA distance running. He has raced faster in every race this
season than last year, and last year, in case you forgot, he set the PIAA state
record at Hershey. Since it’s clear that he has improved, I don’t see how
Russell can be taken down at states.
2 Colin Abert (jr) Easton Area
It’s amazing to me how in the comments everyone assumes
Colin Abert died last year. If you look at results he went out hard, 4:41 and
backed off. He was in 15th at the mile, meaning he beat out 3 more
people on the way to the finish. If for example he finished like Chris Berry
(went from 14th to 63rd) then yes, I think that response
would have merit. Abert loves going out hard, the opposite of Tony Russell.
Last season in Etrain and I watched Rico Galassi go out hard and he was realed
in by Jones at the end of poop-out, but Jones had used all his energy up just
trying to catch Galassi, and Galassi won. Could the same happen this season?? Russell did go to the well this past weekend on his finish, will that kick still be there if he needs it this weekend?
3 Ross Wilson (sr) Council Rock North
Ross Wilson is one of the hardest working runners I’ve seen.
He’s dropping workouts that Chris Campbell couldn’t touch. Of course I’d love
to see him win this race as his old teammate, but I think Abert and Russell are
in another league.
4 Colin Martin (sr) Fox Chapel Area
Colin is finally having his year, winning his first District
title. I think he’ll have a very good day at the state meet. He runs hard and
loves to get after it during the second mile. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him
up with Abert in the beginning.
5 Patrick Reilly (sr) Dallastown
Ran 16 flat at the district course last weekend which does
worry me a bit, but Reilly has been a stud all season long and extremely consistent
with his fantastic times. He’ll stick around up front all the way through.
6 Kevin James (jr) Cardinal O’Hara
In what should be the fastest states year of all time, Kevin
James will have the opportunity to once again prove his prowess as a top PA
runner. He is extremely strong and the state course benefits him, but I don’t
think he has what it takes to break into the top 5 if they all have good days.
7 Ethan Martin (sr) Fox Chapel Area
Ethan has been injured quite a bit this season, but he is
coming back strong. A couple years ago Ryan Gil placed 4th @ WPIAL’s
coming off injury and he won the state meet, but I don’t think Martin will do
it. HOWEVER! If it does rain a lot on Friday afternoon/night and the course is
a bit muddy (leading to slower times) his kick will do him handy and I’d bet he
could place top 3.
8 Zach Brehm (jr) Carlisle
Oh man I have a tough time with this kid. I’m a huge Brehm
fan, but he is just so inconsistent. Are we going to see the Brehm that blew
Patrick Reilly out of the watch at Carlisle? Or is this past race a good confirmation
on where he is at? I think Brehm works best off of slower paces and I think he
is with the second group until 1000 to go when he pushes up from about 20th
to 8th. He could surprise and go sub 15:50 though.
9 Chris Kazanjian (sr) Penncrest
The Kazanjian twins know how to peak well and they a hungry
to hit the hills. Chris has been running strong all season and proved this past
weekend he is an extremely smart tactical racer. I think he and Matt will be
exactly where they need/want to be in this race.
10 Jake Brophy (so) Central Bucks East
My goodness is this youngster a stud. In a time when many
runners on this list are fighting for positions on the top 10 list of All-Time
Distance runners of PA History, Brophy is ready to mix it up with any of them
as just a sophomore. He’s fearless and runs hills very well. Chris better watch
out for him at states.
11 Matt McGoey (jr) North Allegheny
McGoey will lead a very well packed and strong NA squad and
I think he does what he needs to for his team. He let the pressure get to him
last year, but he’s a year older and wiser and I believe he can get the job
done this time around.
12 Matt Kazanjian 16:05 Penncrest
Much like I said about Chris, Matt is ready to go. He wants
a top 10 finish in this meet, but I think he falls just short. Any other year
Matt has the talent to be in the top 10, but he’ll have to be a bit tactically
smarter to get this place than he was at districts. He was around 30th
at the halfway point at districts.
13 Aaron Gebhart (jr) New Oxford
This is one of my favorite PA runners and I honestly don’t
have a reason why. He came up huge last year at states placing 28th
as a sophomore and he has improved as expected this season. He is a great hill
runner and very gutsy.
14 Sam Webb (jr) Pennsbury
Webb finds himself in
the same spot as last year. He has improved a little bit, but not the big jump
more juniors make. I’m guessing this is due to miles at a younger age, but Webb
is still extremely good and it would be ridiculous to write him off. Don’t
forget, he and Harriman had their best races at states last season.
15 Reiny Barchet (sr) West Chester Henderson
For an XC All-American and runner-up at NXN NE, Rieny seems
to have lost his touch since that 9:08 last season at the Henderson Distance
festival, and I can’t tell what it is that he’s missing. If he’s on top of his
game for the first time this season he could break 16 if not 15:50, he’s that
talented. For now though, I can’t see him being that much faster than 16:10.
16 Cole Nissley (sr) Lower Dauphin
Nissley could be the most consistent runner in PA. You know
what you’re getting… an extremely solid performance by a very good runner. I
like how he races and I think he places well.
17 Brian Delany (so) Manheim Township
Delany is my sleeper pick and I may have gone a bit high
with him, but I do think he medals if not breaks into the top 20. Delany is a
very gutsy sophomore who has raced incredibly strong this season. I think he
mixes it up in the second pack and doesn’t let go.
18 Seamus Love (jr) North Allegheny
Love is part of a fantastic NA team and I think he places
second for them this season. He and Cordon are always right with each other,
but I think he breaks away a bit at the end to help them get points.
19 Chris Cummings (sr) West Chester East
Cummings has had a fantastic, breakout season and he ran
16:13 at Foundation. I think he may have peaked a bit too early however as he
looked beat on Friday during the district meet, running a time he’s been
hitting all year in the 15:30 range. I think a great day for Cummings would be
just under 16:10.
20 Jim Belfatto (sr) Cardinal O’Hara
Belfatto is one of the best #2 guys in the state and has
flown pretty far under the radar this season. I think he grabs a medal and
helps secure O’Hara a 3rd place finish. I think we’ll see him race
even better at NXN NE however.
21 Jacob Connors (jr) Wilson
Connors ran fantastic at the end of last season and he is in
clearly great shape right now. Probably the most underrated junior in the
state. I think we see a big performance out of him to grab a medal.
22 Alexander Balla (sr) Quakertown
I really like what Balla has been doing this season. His
best races have come from hilly courses and he’s my sleeper pick for a medal
out of district one. This could be me pulling the trigger a bit much, I’ll
admit, but one of those 15:53-15:55 guys will snag a medal and I think it’ll be
him. Although Jonathan Perlman would be my second choice of being that guy.
23 Alex Knapp (jr) West Chester Henderson
Knapp ran very well for Henderson at Districts and has
probably been the most consistent of their Varsity guys during his breakout
season. I think he continues this trend.
24 Cordon Louco (sr) North Allegheny
Louco is the senior leader on this NA top 5 of stud juniors.
He’s been 4/5 most of the year but was 3rd man last meet and I
believe he steps it up once again to snag a medal and help this team compete
against Henderson. It just might not be enough though.
25 William Cather (sr) State College
Deep sleeper here for Cather, but let me explain. Cather has
run in almost every big invitational this season and is constantly facing the
top competition. He has taken the last two races as tempo’s and has looked very
strong in doing so. He and the SC guys will need to bounce back after almost
losing to Altoona this past weekend at districts, and I think his race will
help lead them to a strong finish.
1. West Chester Henderson – District 1
7 guys broke 16 at Districts for this squad as they are
beginning to round into shape. With everything pushed back a month for this team;
I cannot wait to see how good they will be by Regionals. That being said I
think they’re going to be in a very tight race with NA. They seem to have
enough fire power to pull through the victory however.
2. North Allegany – District 7
This team has shown time and time again how strong they are
and they run with an incredible pack mentality. Hunter Wharrey fell off the
pace this past weekend, but if can be their #3 again, or even just be closer to
the pack, this team could take down WCH. If they can get 4 or 5 guys in the top
30, which is possible, I think they can pull out the win. I think it’s silly to
think that they and Henderson are in different leagues.
3. Cardinal O’Hara – District 12
O’Hara is in a very rough spot. They’ve got a very good
squad lead by an unbelievable junior, Kevin James. Much like James, this team
right now is just unlucky to be in PA AAA. On most other years this team would
be vying for a championship win due to a nice 3-7 pack and a strong 1-2 punch.
I think they will easily secure 3rd place as they seem to really be
looking towards Regionals.
4. Freedom – District 11
I’m a huge Freedom fan, and I don’t believe District 11 gets
enough credit, especially this season. These guys pack it in better than most
teams in the state and have some fantastic young talent. I think they’ll be
much stronger next season, but this should be a preview. I think they’re
inexperience and youth get to them a bit and they could slip into 5th
place, despite their talent level.
5. Conestoga - District 1
This team was awesome at districts. Packing in 5 guys sub
16:21 is impressive and their coaches believe they could have put 7 guys sub
16:20 (check out the interview once I put it up). I have underestimated them a lot
this season since they weren’t running many 5k’s, but they’ve proved themselves
and they’ve earned my respect.
6. Council Rock North - District 1
This team is led by a stud in Ross Wilson and they’ve got a
very nice 2-4 pack. Griswold was further behind than usual at districts,
otherwise they really challenge Conestoga for second place, but they did have
step up days from their 5-6 runners with freshman, and 6th man Tim
Haas running 3 seconds slower than Ross Wilson did his freshman year at
districts. Haas could very well be their 5th man in this race. They’ve
only got 2 seniors on varsity and the inexperience could hurt them. Don’t be
surprised if they fall back to 7th or 8th.
7. Fox Chapel - District 7
These guys pulled together a much stronger team that I had
anticipated this season. Going into the year I said if they could get a 4th
and 5th man they’d be set, and they did just that, pulling sophomore
Rendon Urso seemingly out of thin air (soccer play?, who knows..) along with
junior Jacob Halasowski. With the best 1-2 punch in the state these guys could
place very well. But like CRN they’re young towards the back end and fairly
inexperienced which could lead to their downfall.
8. State College - District 6
This team has come a long way since last season and I like
the pieces they have. They have the most upside of just about any team in the
meet. This group of mostly seniors is hungry after missing the state meet last
season to prove themselves. I would have them higher on the list, but they
almost slipped up at Districts, beating Altoona by only a point which worries
me.
9. Carlisle - District 3
They’ve battled SC all season and I think it comes down to a
tie breaker with them. Brehm is running solid and Jon Carroll is having a
really fantastic season. If they’re 3-5 guys can step up they will get close to
200 points which sets them up very nicely.
10. Mount Lebanon - District 7
After losing a lot of strong pieces going into the year Mt.
Lebo has really turned the tables around. Sophomore Todd Gunzenhauser has
stepped into his brothers shoes and is racing very well. The rest of this team
has been up and down, but if they can all have an on day, they’ll be competing
for a top 7 spot.
--ForrestCRN
P.S. I will be having the draft again this year similar to how Etrain did it! I'd like to host it either Wednesday or Thursday night around 9 PM. Please add me on Facebook and send me a message that you would like to play. I will make the group tomorrow night once we get a few people. I'd love to have 6 to 10 guys playing! It will be the same as last year, we'll pick a varsity squad of 7 point and the top 5 guys will score based on place.
--ForrestCRN
P.S. I will be having the draft again this year similar to how Etrain did it! I'd like to host it either Wednesday or Thursday night around 9 PM. Please add me on Facebook and send me a message that you would like to play. I will make the group tomorrow night once we get a few people. I'd love to have 6 to 10 guys playing! It will be the same as last year, we'll pick a varsity squad of 7 point and the top 5 guys will score based on place.
Wow forrest it's crazy how much you know about all these different guys and teams! Great explanations!
ReplyDeleteThe team race for 2nd between NA, OH, CRN and Conestoga should be epic.
ReplyDeleteNA is going to be going at it with Henderson and CRN and stoga aren't on the same level as OH
DeleteAgreed. The third through sixth place fight should be epic, but 1-2 are Henderson and NA without question.
DeleteNA needs a bad day by WCH and a huge day by their 4-6. Sort of like what happened the last two years to the favorite.
DeleteStill not sold on Reiny in 15th. The dude's an All-American
ReplyDeleteYeah he came in top 20 at NATIONALS last year. And now you think he'll come in 15th at states? Makes no sense he certainly hasn't gotten worse.
DeleteHe is running worse this year.
DeleteJust like the stock marked, past performance is no guarantee of future success.
DeleteHe did run faster at manhattan this year...
DeleteAnd he only ran 7 seconds slower at districts...
Deletereiny will be fine-y.
DeleteHe was 7 seconds off of last years time at Lehigh, he knew his position was strong for the team win and he knew Tony was up front doing his thing. Who cares about his time, he ran strong and is in great position to go low at states.
Deletehe was all American last year and got 19th at states if I recall correctly.
DeleteHonestly, it all depends on his mindset going into the meet. He's capable of being the #2 guy in the state if he wants, the fact that he was #2 in the region last year proves that. But if he doesn't go after it, opting to focus on Regionals and Nats again, then perhaps he could fall as far as 15th.
DeleteCouldn't have said it better ^. I don't think Barchet cares about the State meet (not in a negative attitude way, but in a I-already-have-my-state-championship way). He has his State championship as a team and I think he's looking at the more important race: Regionals and Nationals. They're just there to win States and keep it moving. It's just another meet to them. I wouldn't be surprised if Barchet was saving himself to absolutely destroy at Regionals and Nationals. I've said before that I believe WCH could have went 1-2 at Districts if they wanted to... same for States. I just think he has his motivation for another meet.
DeleteWatch Henderson's interview after Districts. They aren't even worried about the State meet. I don't think he said it out of cockiness, but out of it's just another step until our main goal: Nationals 2013. Of course they're concentrating on the meet and intend to win, but it's not their main priority.
-RTJ
I could be wrong RTJ, but I’d be surprised if Barchet or any other WCH runner is looking at states as just another meet or less important than Regionals or Nationals. I actually think it’s the opposite, they care very much about this meet it is their main priority.
DeleteAnd if they're not worried about states, they should be warry. OH was the heavy favorite going in last year and WCH pulled off the big upset so they know as well as anyone they can’t look past it or peak for a later meet. I'm sure OH would love to return the favor this year!
Both NA and OH are dangerous teams, capable of pulling off the win if they have a big day or if WCH is off. WCH will go all out because they have to, the competition is too strong. They probably want to go all out anyway, they’re going against the best in PA, who wouldn’t want to show how they stack up? And with Regionals and Nationals a month out they don't need to save themselves now. They can go hard at states, take it easy for a few days and then build back up for the Regional/National run.
I’d be surprised to see anything less than a 100% effort by every one of them on Saturday, right to the last two inches of the race where it was decided last year!
- RJJL
Thanks for the insider insite coaches Kennedy and Kelly.
Delete^ Sincerely hoping you're not that stupid
DeleteIf RJJL is right, as he tends to be, then I think Barchet will be top 5 without a doubt. But after 19th last year, I hesitate to have so much faith.
Barchet is due for a big race.
DeleteSeamus won't be holding back.
DeleteO'Hara coaches said last year that they were holding back at states and peaking for nationals. Henderson won't make that mistake.
DeleteIdk where I'd place Barchet. He ran better last year and placed 19th but last year I don't think he took any chances when he could have. Barchet was 100% running for his team last year (which he will do this year... but I think he will take a chance this year). At once point in the race last year Barchet said something like "remember what we're here for" to Russell when he tried to go early. This year I think will be different. With all of that being said... I still don't know where I'd put him.
ReplyDeleteNA will not be any lower than #2 just like O'Hara won't be any lower than #3. On a much tougher course O'Hara has 5 sub 16:35, something Stoga couldn't do at Rose Tree. At the State course, they don't have the experience O'Hara/CRN does. They are an excellent team, but I don't think they'll be top 5.
-RTJ
Wilson is not entered on the list of entries. http://www.piaa.org/assets/web/documents/2013_XC_AAAB_Qualifiers.pdf
ReplyDeleteAlso, I would say District 1 had its weakest year in recent history. Unlikely that they have 5 of the top 10 like usual and highly unlikely they have any more than 2 in the top 5. My guess would actually be just WCH.
http://www.phillyburbs.com/00redesign/sports/high-school/cross-country-notebook-local-teams-runners-have-high-hopes/article_c2aa006d-f663-54be-8f0b-f47825279069.html
DeleteArticle posted on PhillyBurbs/Intelligencer today says:
CR North's Ross Wilson remains a contender for the individual championship following his runner-up finish at districts.
I realize that these are purely your opinions/guesses, Forrest, but I'd just like to clear things up with regards to Sam Webb; all season you've said things about him along the lines of "He won't improve because he trained hard in grade school" and "He doesn't look much faster this year". I understand where you're coming from, but I'd argue the exact opposite.
ReplyDelete1. Yes, Sam ran hard and really fast (4:31) in grade school. So did a lot of other guys on your list: Kevin James, the Kazanjians, Reiny, and Belfatto. In fact, it is arguable that training and racing hard at a young age (provided the sport remains fun!) gives one a mental and aerobic advantage.
2. According to the Law of Diminishing Returns, Webb wasn't going to improve as much from SO to JR year as he did FR to SO year, because he achieved so much last year. His team is also pretty low mileage, unlike your CRN boys, Forrest.
3. Ultimately, Sam is a tremendous competitor, and I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him break into the top 10, or even a little better. He will do everything he can do.
Some other musings:
I have my doubts about Brehm being a hill runner, but I think he's definitely a medalist
Conversely, I think Cummings is definitely a hill runner and you have him a bit underrated
No disrespect to Brian Delany, he's had a great year, but he didn't run at States last year, and the start could be a big shock to him. We will see.
I agree with Forrest on Sam Webb, unlike all the other runners who up their miles as they get older Webb seems to be running the same level leaving the only room for improvement in his physical maturity not his training. That being said Kazanjians, Barchet, and Belfatto all ran around 4:55 in grade school not 4:31
DeleteWhatever training he is doing is working just fine.
DeleteI also agree with Forrest and the first comment. They were no where near that level of success in grade school. Even adding Ned Willig and Magaha on that list, they were all low 4:50's.
DeleteSam Webb will get better because his body is growing and he's maturing, but unless he ups his mileage/changes his workouts he will not get that much better. He's a pretty small guy so when he fills out times will drop. You can't use the law of diminishing returns because then how do you explain Magaha and WIllig? They both consistently got so much better per season. Ned couldn't senior year because of injury, but by indoor he would have. That law refers to girls for the most part.
Cummings has already said in an interview that hills aren't his favorite and doesn't consider himself a hill runner. He can handle himself on hills, however, there's a difference.
-RTJ
In CYO, Sam Webb ran for St. Ignatius, who trains with St. Andrew-Newtown. The Ignatius/Andrew boys consistently dominated and they continue to do so year after year. Just look at the results for the season and the CYO Champs meet yesterday.
Deletehttps://www.runtheday.com/race/results
At Champs, St. Andrew won the Novice boys by 11 seconds; St. Ignatius won the Minor boys by 31 seconds, with St. Andrew in second by 28 seconds; St. Ignatius went 1-2 in the Cadet boys by 13 and 8 seconds. All were leaders at every practice race. But, is it at a cost to their future? Like Webb, Kardish has done well, but you do not hear of many other Ignatius/Andrew runners once they reach high school - Sauer and Prior come to mind. Many more D1 and D12 standouts are former CYO runners that trailed the Ignatius/Andrew boys week in and week out.
People always said they would burn out by high school. Was it worth it?
Will Cather has not ran the last two races tempo, I was at District 6 this pass weekend and he simply got beat by Stroh. Stroh was too much. Cather is way too high in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteTony Russell just committed to Penn State.
ReplyDeleteHe could go pretty much anywhere, and he chooses Penn State? WTF
DeleteGood school academically, great party school, whats wrong with Penn State?
DeleteThey've had a lot of success with Their athletes. Maybe he didn't want to go to a school like Oregon or OSU who are horrible academically. He is from the area too. He grew up in state college. Penn state has the biggest alumni base in the world so it makes getting a job a lot easier after college. Coach Sullivan coached the Olympic team I'm pretty sure, she was in Moscow with the girls I believe. The only problem with Penn State on the distance side is that they don't get recruits like Russell for longer distance events. After he's there I'm positive it'll drive more people to consider Penn state
Delete1. Penn State is a great school. Ivy leagues schools are great and all, but choosing a school is a lot more than just name brand. Major, fit, and so much more go into it. Depending on his major, Penn State could be better than ivy league that category and has 1% of the workforce of the world. Think about that. It's also his choice and where he fits best at. It's a great mix of an academic and party school.
Delete2. Now, PSU does get recruits for distances like Russell. Matt Fischer, Conner Quinn, the Dawson brothers, Wade Endress, Vince McNally Tessa Barrett, Tori Gerlach, etc. All of them were very talented in XC and track. Russell will not be a long distance runner, however. He will most likely be a 1500/3k runner. Maybe SC.
3. Their coach is amazing, he turns up top notch athletes year after year. They are always competitive at the Penn Relays 4x800 and usually have a very fast 4x400. They are definitely a mid-distance school, but they have no issues recruiting distance kids on both sides. A lot of them convert to steeple chasers; Tori Gerlach, Nicole Lord, Natalie Bower, Nick Scarp, Chris Campell, probably Conner Quinn as well, to name a few. All of those aforementioned names coming from PA.
I don't think Russell going to Penn State will have anything to do with other people wanting to go. We have had many runners of his caliber go to Penn State and I don't think they need any additional help.
-RTJ
Congrats to Russell.
DeleteWell done. Athletes should always choose the school they want to go to, not necessarily the one with the big name or supposedly best program, legendary coach and/or perks, unless it's a great fit.
DeleteSo many become unhappy in the choice, particularly in baseball and football where they're made to think they're all that and can go pro. They end up losing or walking away from the scholarship, transfer to where they should have gone in the first place and end up not playing the sport at all in college.
-ED
Brent Kennedy Commits to Notre Dame. Seems like a fantastic choice to me!
ReplyDeleteSo Kennedy, Martin Twins, and Russell off the board.
Wait, shit, where are the Martins going?
ReplyDeleteMichigan
DeletePA high school superstars are rarely heard from again in college. It's always some late bloomer or a middle varsity man on a poorly coached high school team that finds good running success in college.
ReplyDeleteTell that to Lefebure, D1 All-American as a freshman
DeletePlease, that's on a relay team with a sub 4:00 miler who wasn't from PA.
DeleteHe still made a All American Team and a FRESHMAN....
DeleteCraig Miller
DeleteMiller panned out, as did Hallihan and the Dawsons. But for each of them, whatever happened to Willig, Magaha, Kellar, Gil, Aldrich, Springer, Denin, Miles, the Rosa's, etc....did they peak in high school, get injured or maybe or lose interest?
DeleteNot sure what you mean by Willig. He won Heps in the 1k last year along with running a 2:54.0 split in the 1200 for Brown. Magaha I heard was injured. Kellar is still running for Temple and has done ok. Dennin just graduated I believed, but he ran very well in college. Miles is doing a bit below average, especially for how great he was in high school.
DeleteAs for the Rosa's they're still running for Stanford and doing quite well. One I believe is just coming off a stress fracture from the spring.
Tons of changes occur in college, training in high school will have an effect on a runners college potential, but there are so many other social and educational factors that cannot be accounted for in the giant leap that occurs between High School and College.
--ForrestCRN
Good response Forrest. These guys do well, but they're spread all over the country and since Penn Track is high school oriented, we don't get nearly as much info on college performances.
DeleteWhen you say "tons of changes occur in college", you are spot on. A lot of guys use their running success to give them an edge in the college admission process. The reality is, academics become the priority and most of these guys know that's where their future lies, not in running. Only a miniscule percentage of college runners go beyond that.
DeleteTotally agree with last comment, most top runners use their talents as a way to receive a great education they would not be able to do without
DeleteWhat about Zach Seiger out of District 3? finished 6th in front of Delany? He has been looking great! He ran states last year, races smart, moves up well in the 2nd and 3rd mile. Ever since the loss of team mate Aaron Lauer he has really stepped it up. I Look for him in the top 15
ReplyDeleteInteresting how for some guys you add 55 seconds to their district time but others only 35. Is this based on your belief of their hill running ability?
ReplyDeleteI try and factor in how they have run on hilly courses and who they have beaten earlier in the season. Some guys run very well on flats and others run better on hills. It's tough to tell who will have good and bad days as well going from districts to states. I do my best. I think 35 to 55 seconds out of District 1 is pretty reasonable. I do however completely understand your criticism.
Delete--ForrestCRN
16:22 for the last medalist... wow! This state keeps getting better. Looks as though next year the state definitely "slows" down a bit. Every year past year a 16:30 would just about get you a state medal. Now, if it rains the day before and the course is muddy, I can assure you some individual places will change. I think 3-4 runners have a shot at being under the course record from last year.
ReplyDeleteVery true point. Brophy's grade definitely does not have the phenoms of the grade above like Webb, James, Abert, and Brehm besides Brophy himself. Next year will definitely be dominated by seniors, unlike the past couple of years.
DeleteThis year has been senior dominated
Deleteyou got young kids in the top group like abert, brehm, webb, brophy, mcgoey, and james who will medal and make up half of the top 12. And then you got a nice solid group of about 4-5 junior runners just in district 1 from 15:48-15:57. I'm sure we will see one or two of those juniors step up and snag a medal.
DeleteFreedom in 4th? Seriously who have they beaten this year? They were 5th at PTXC and 4th at the Foundation race and you have them beating everyone that beat them at those races (except North Allegheny). They will be top 10 but DEFINITELY not top 5.
ReplyDelete100% agree. Very overrated
DeleteThey have improved far more than most teams on the list. PTXC is extremely early in the season. Red Land lost Lauer so they're out of the picture and Cedar Crest tanked.
DeleteAt Foundation they lost to a very strong LD team who had one of the best races all season, who now doesn't have their top guy in Jeff Groh, so again, they move up past them.
State College beat them at Foundation, but hasn't had a very good showing since. I expected them to blow out districts and they didn't.
So lets see, two early meets in september Freedom placed fairly well and then they killed it at Districts. Most people don't pay attention to D11 and they don't get any credit. I happened to notice that. Again, Freedom is a very young team and may not pan out 100% at the state meet, much like NA last season, a team who was clearly better than CRN going into the meet, but experience won out.
--ForrestCRN
I predict that Freedom 11is going to STANK at states.
ReplyDelete