SOL National
Conference Championships – 10/18
Wilson is the returning champ and I don’t doubt that he’ll
repeat with Webb cruising for second. After that it should be a good battle
after that with Francis, Arita, Kane, Griswold, and Simmons. It should be good
to see where Sauer and O’Connell match up with this group as well. I think CR
North should win this handily, but WT and Pennsbury battle for second place
should help determine where these teams are at for Districts.
SOL Continental
Conference Championships – 10/18
This will be a great fight up front between Comber and
Brophy. Brophy peaked perfectly last season and I think he’ll be doing the same
this season as well. Comber nipped him at the last dual meet and will do again
at this meet, but districts would be a different story. After that North Penn
should be coming in hot for another league championship after a very
disappointing 4th place last season. Also look to see where Logue
places.
SOL American
Conference Championships – 10/18
The Marcelis brothers should be battling up front with
Cooper of Upper Merion. I have no doubt Wissahickon will grab this title pretty
easily.
Ches-Mont American
Championships 10/18
Last year this section of Ches-Mont’s was dominated by GV
and I hope to see that happen again as they attempt to mount a post-season
comeback after a very disappointing season so far. They’ve been banged up, but
it seems as though they are headed for a turnaround. Also look for Kienzle and
Jones to mix it up out front.
Ches-Mont National
Championships – 10/18
Will Barchet re-capture his title? It’ll take a lot for him
to do so. Cummings and Russell will be battling out front unless Russell is
told to hang out, which is totally possible. Henderson should have no issue
taking this meet. It will be interesting to see how DTW and WCE stack up in
this team battle: Front Runners against a quick spread. The opposite team types
should make for a fun match up. This will be a good chance to see the Henderson
guys against other competition like the WCE 2-3 guys.
--ForrestCRN
Ches-Mont is all one race. They just score it separately.
ReplyDeleteCummings is riding a wave of confidence, this title is his for the taking, so expect he'll take this race out hard. Kienzle, Smith, Diestelow and maybe Willig plus a few excited underclassman might follow but chances are WCH runs a workout and places five in the top 15, 7 top 25. - JEB
ReplyDeleteMy thoughts exactly-WCH will not go all out here, but do enough to win. Cummings for the win because Russell, if he runs, will not beat himself up to get the W.
DeleteOr, perhaps everyone knows WCH is saving it for Districts so they do too. Then the race is tactical and Caldwell or Moy, the guys with good 800 speed, outkick everyone else for a 1-2 lean at the tape.
DeleteHmmm, interesting scenario. This Unionville course doesn't lend itself to that kind of finish. In fact, I think it's been determined that it's longer than a 5k and if the ground is muddy like last year, all bets are off.
DeleteNow that would be cool. I'd love to see an xc race that came down to the 800 runners dueling it out for the win.
DeleteLast year, Russell and Barchet did what they had to to win, coming in about 30 yards ahead of Stedman and Liedel. So this year I'd expect Russell to win and Barchet and Cummings to battle it out for second. Being experienced racers, I'd expect them to take it our fast enough to take the 800 runners out of the race.
DeleteRussell and R. Barchet were the only two varisity runners to run both Chesmonts and Districts, so expect Henderson to rest some runners again. (Knapp and Collins rest?)
Barchet and Russell went 1-2 last year easily. They beat a pack of 6 good runners by 10-20 seconds then beat those same guys by 35-40 seconds at Districts which proved they were comfortable at Chesmonts.
DeleteCummings and Kienzle have raised it to another level so anyone wanting first this year will have to work very hard to win the individual title. WCH has no need to as the team has bigger goals. They'll run for top 10 places unless they get a signal from their coach that the rest of the team is choking behind them, which is unlikely.
Here is my D1 prediction. WCH, CRN and Conestoga make it in: 7 teams battling for the last two spots:
ReplyDeleteWCE- Excellent 1-3 punch but I think depth will hurt this team. I don’t think they make it in
DTW: Close gap and great depth on all 7 runners. Should get in.
William tenant; Close spread with 1-4. #5 just not close enough. I think they miss
PB: very solid 1-3. Like WCE I think overall depth will hurt this team. I don’t think they make it
NP: Solid 1-3 and depth from 4-7 so I think they barely make it in.
GV- I had high expectation for this team but with injuries I just think it might be a little late. Out
Pennridge: Solid #1 and close spread 2-7. Out but has the potential to sneak in.
Every point will count so I see many runners giving it their all which makes team with depth have an advance.. That said, this will make it an exciting race… Good luck to all runners.
Dude, districts are next week. This is conference week. How about a chesmont prediction?
DeletePCLs?
ReplyDeleteCOH/James win. Bilotta comes in fourth.
Delete1st-Ohara
Delete2nd- La Salle
3rd- Saint Joes Prep
4th- Roman Catholic
5th-Archbishop Wood
6th- Monseignor Bonner
7th-Father Judge
There's an abosolutely delightful Q & A with Tony Russell exclusively on PennTrack.
ReplyDelete- Don
Chesmont predictions:
ReplyDelete1. Tony Russell - Russell is a senior and has not won a league championship. I think he may want to win this.
2. Chris Cummings - He has been on a roll and hasn't really had a bad race all season. He keeps the pace honest and will make Russell work to win this championship.
3. Reiny Barchet - Doesn't seem like the Barchet that wrecked districts/regionals, but I think his time comes late season where it really matters.
4. Josh Smith- He ran two sub 16's on widely debated courses, but he also ran a 16:48 on the States' course (beating Diestelow), so he is the real deal. My guess is that he is training for post season which is why he hasn't run an invitational recently.
5. Alex Knapp - I listened to what someone told me and I think they're right. He was only a soph last year and sophomore to junior year is the biggest jump of most peoples running career. I think he surpasses Collins/Stratman, but not by too much.
6. Eric Stratman - He had a huge breakout in track and has had a solid XC season.
7. Seamus Collins - Him and Stratman have been always right next to each other. I think it will stay the same now.
8. Billy Caldwell - Big win last week and the second of his XC career I believe. He finally dipped under 16. From the times, I believe they fixed the course so it's not as short/easy/whatever it was as last year.
9. Eric Diestelow - He has had a solid season, I thought he'd be closer to Cummings, but like Barchet, he comes to play in post season. I expect a huge race out of him at districts, but for now, I'll keep him 9th.
10. DTW freshman (Alansky/Barton) - These two have been progressing excellently. Alansky the better one, but Barton the far more consistent one. I believe one of the two will capture 10th.
Just missing (no order):
Matt Willig - I'm unsure of where he is health wise. Injuries aren't new to Matt (see soph/junior year of xc) but he always seems to recover in time for districts.
Stephen Dages - Solid #3 and is usually near-ish to Diestelow.
Garrett Zatlin - Unsure of where he is health wise, but like Matt, injuries aren't new to him, so I hope he rounds into form.
Ryan Mucha- He's been their #1 for 50% of their invitationals, but I think this one he falls short. Districts he will get back on top and States... who knows...
Ricky Waltz- Probably the best 6th man in the State. Very solid and will show by beating many team's #2's, maybe even #1's.
This list is assuming Henderson is running their full varsity/running hard, which I hope they do. They should be in shape enough to run this invitational, then run again in a week and a half.
-RTJ
Henderson is not running their full varsity, otherwise your predictions are good.
DeleteI would put Henry Sappey 10th
DeleteWhy would WCH run their full varsity full effort when they know they can win pretty easily. O'hara did that last year trying to shut out the field at PCL's and it probably cost them the state championship.
DeleteWaltz and Moy beat the entire DTW varsity at Manhattan. Swart ran in the middle of that pack time-wise, although in a different race. I would put Waltz and Moy up there with Collins if they run everyone.
DeleteI think the Henderson boys will pack it up and not go all out, along with resting probably 1 or 2 guys. Also, I agree with what you have for Knapp RTJ, but keep in mind that last year was his first XC season as well, so he might have an even bigger jump than expected.
DeleteI have to argue with the Ohara point. I don't think if they say guys at PCLs it would have made a difference. Besides if what you say is true, why did Ohara beat WCH at regionals? It was always going to be WCH and OH battling it out. The fact that WCH beat Ohara and vice versa means they both trained pretty well throughout the whole year to reach their potential.
DeleteOH won at Regionals because Haugh was out with an injury.
DeleteHaugh wasn't anything more than their 4-5... he never beat Rimkis and only beat Knapp on a rough States course and it was Knapp's first xc States experience. To say they would have won would mean he would have been VERY close to Rimkis, which is very generous. We will never know what would have happened if he ran, but we can't say that's the ONLY reason O'Hara won. O'Hara was a sick pack running team. That 17 second spread had a huge part to do with it.
Delete-RTJ
The real reason is that after going hard in Sept at Briarwood, Foundation, Great American they just kept pouring it on at Delcos, PLC's and Districts, going for decisive wins where it wasn't necessary. By the time they got to States, the toughest major course in PA, they were on their 7th hard, all-out 5K of the year and it cost them in the last 200 yards.
Deletenot at all the reason they lost. If they completely blew up at states maybe, but that's ridiculous. All of that racing didn't tire them out for 200 yards. I think the states course tired them out.
DeleteThere's no question all those hard races took their toll in the last 200 yards at states. Fresh legs will always have the advantage and WCH had them because they raced smart. The didn't try for a meaningless shut out at Chesmonts.
DeleteAre there any Unionville runners out there who know if the course length has been rechecked? Last year was the first year and even with the wet conditions it seems long, and the times seemed off more than they should have been.
ReplyDeleteThe course was measured at 3.25 miles last year. I hope they revised it.
DeleteI heard some jv from a couple of teams were going to run it with garmins to figure it out.
DeleteI posted a story about DTW on milesplit...so they'll probably win everything now
ReplyDelete-Don
Nothing like profiling the teams associated with a major sponsor.
DeleteWho's that?
DeleteThey are sponsored by Nike
DeleteI wish we were sponsored by Nike...
Delete-DTW runner
I don’t think Henderson will go all out for Ches-monts. They didn’t last year and they probably shouldn’t this year with States, NE’s and Nationals in their plans. That said, if they want to win they can’t be too cute. If WCH were to sit their top guys, WCE could potentially put 3 in the top 6 or 7, the same three who were in the top 9 last year. I know WCE hasn’t had the depth they’d like yet, however big drops are more common in the guys in the 17ish range and they have a bigger impact because there’s more runners bunched in. If two guys have a big day, it’s possible. Of course I realize it’s a long shot, but with 3 front runners, WCE are the only ones with a remote chance if WCH goes too light.
ReplyDeleteSo, I expect to see WCH run a pack like they did at their invite/workout and hang in the 8 – 12th place range. Even with a couple falling off the pace they should win no problem. They’ll probably sit two of the regular varsity and run Swart and G Barchet. Keep in mind I’ve been wrong with them so far this year, so maybe they end up going all out for a record Chesmont low score.
Aside from the optimism on WCE, realistically I’d say it’s WCH, DTW, WCE, GV, AG, DTE, Kennett, Rustin, Unionville and then anyone’s guess. Individually, I do think WCH backs off and Cummings gets the win.
- RJJL
But Russell beat Cummings in a dual meet. So why would he not try for it in the conference championships
ReplyDeleteForrest you should keep up with the journals and maybe the video interviews like you and e-train did back in winter. That would be cool.
ReplyDeleteThoughts about Tri-State Coaches meet? Who will run, and who will not?
ReplyDeleteCummings over Russell at ChesMonts. WCE over DTW for 2nd.
ReplyDeleteWCH did what the RRJL guy above said they would, ran in a pack and let Cummings and Keinzle and a couple of others go, and then they ended up catching all except Cummings.
DeleteDiestelow broke up the Henderson pack too. I think it was Cummings, Russell, Stratman, Diestelow and then the Henderson pack. DTW pack was back was in the 20-25th range.
ReplyDelete